KLCI Stock - KNM / 7164 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	991,081,667 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(0.99-0.02)/0.08 = 12.12 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.12+0.02 = 1.14 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.08, DPS 0.02)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price can sustain MACD uptrend and stronger buying volume than selling or below 0.88
Comment	Revenue decreased 18.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.4%, eps decreased 1170.3% and was fourth consecutive quarter decreasing (lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 308.8%), cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio still acceptable
First Support Price	0.945
Second Support Price	0.84
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	3.25 (2011-03-04)
Kenanga Target Price	3.06 (2011-03-08)
TA Target Price	2.53 (2011-08-23)
Affin Target Price	1.05 (2011-09-06)
HwangDBS Target Price	1.35 (2011-10-04)
ECM Target Price	1.72 (2011-10-12)
RHB Target Price	0.7 (2011-10-24)
Maybank Target Price	1.08 (2011-11-23)
MIDF Target Price	0.85 (2011-11-23)
OSK Target Price	0.8 (2011-12-07)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	-3.88%
Dividend Yield	3.03%
Profit Margin	-32.56%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.4718
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.73
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.24
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	5.12
Cash Per Share	0.42
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.9096
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.5919
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2887
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2306
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5502
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-7.2%
Days to sell the inventory	89
Days to collect the receivables	167
Days to pay the payables	144

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	0.947 (Uptrend 2 days)
SMA 50	1.143 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.259 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.775 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.116854 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram	0.000889 (Uptrend 1 day)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Loss mainly due to one off provision for foreseeable losses and credit impairments

- Lower revenue than FY11Q2 mainly due to delays in implementation of projects

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0889*0.9 = 0.08, estimate PE on current price 0.99 = 12.12(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0194+0.021)*2*1.1 = 0.0889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/12.26 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0655*2*1.1 = 0.1441, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.12/15.68 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0089*4*1.2 = 0.0427(use VAT 15%, include incoming new contract), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/10.54
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0181*4 = 0.0724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0250*4 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.45/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0214*4 = 0.0856, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.7/3.56 (DPS 0.015)

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