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Sunday, January 29, 2012

KLCI Stock - TIMECOM / 5031 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,733,580,875 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now0.685/0.0426 = 16.08 (High)
Target Price0.0426*14.0 = 0.60 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.0426)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD nearly back to uptrend
Revenue decreased 8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.9%, eps increased 42.5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 94%, cash generated from operating and investing enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, payables ratio is high, benefit from lower wayleave fees
First Support Price0.68
Second Support Price0.62

Research House
Macquarie Target Price0.94 (2011-02-14)
OSK Target Price0.7 (2012-01-05)
HLG Target Price0.85 (2012-01-13)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity9.69%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin54.49%
Tax Rate2.96%
Asset Turnover0.1889
Net Asset Value Per Share0.59
Net Tangible Asset per share0.59
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.09
Cash Per Share0.09
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1411
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.1411
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.3153
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1142
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1025
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale61.3%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables161
Days to pay the payables313

Technical Analysis 
SMA 200.704 (Downtrend 13 days)
SMA 500.694 (Same)
SMA 1000.623 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.694 (Downtrend)
MACD0.014002 (Downtrend 16 days)
MACD Histogram-0.008553 (Downtrend 15 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q2 is due to one-off global bandwidth sales entered into in the corresponding quarter

- Higher pbt mainly due to increase in non-global bandwidth sales, adjustments to lower operating expenses (one-time reduction of RM19.7 million and RM8.4 million 2011's wayleave fee)

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0426, estimate PE on current price 0.685 = 16.08
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.009+0.0113)*2*1.05 = 0.0426, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.31/9.74
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.009*4*1.05 = 0.0378, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.22/14.02

TIMECOM latest news (English)

TIMECOM latest news (Chinese)

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