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Saturday, January 14, 2012

KLCI Stock - MUHIBAH / 5703 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)477,609,502 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.17-0.035)/0.1496 = 7.59 (Moderate)
Target Price1.50+0.035 = 1.53 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1496, DPS 0.035)
DecisionBUY if stock price got strong buying volume than selling while stock price still above SMA20
Revenue increased 2.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 81.1%, eps increased 20.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 87.9%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, lower gearing ratio at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio improving, cranes and marine division got higher than usual profit, higher inventory can indicate works amount still at satisfactory level
First Support Price1.13
Second Support Price1.0

Research House
CIMB Target Price1.83 (2011-08-10)
Kencana Target Price1.5 (2011-10-03)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity9.56%
Dividend Yield2.99%
Profit Margin6.35%
Tax Rate31.30%
Asset Turnover0.6793
Net Asset Value Per Share1.22
Net Tangible Asset per share1.18
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.91
Cash Per Share0.66
Liquidity Current Ratio0.9847
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8801
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1533
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio4.2166
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7739
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-1.5%
Days to sell the inventory38
Days to collect the receivables256
Days to pay the payables236

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.129 (Uptrend 15 days)
SMA 501.116 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.109 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.286 (Downtrend)
MACD0.013998 (Uptrend 18 days)
MACD Histogram0.016512 (Uptrend 14 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt is derived from the cranes and shipyard divisions which generated higher revenue with better profit margins

- As at 18 November 2011, the total outstanding secured order book in hand of the Group is RM2.79 billion, comprises of RM1.98 billion from Infrastructure Construction Division, RM609 million from Cranes Division and RM200 million from Shipyard Division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1425*1.05 = 0.1496, estimate PE on current price 1.17 = 7.59(DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4*0.85 = 0.1142(~8% ROE), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.06/8 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0438+0.0226)*2*1.05 = 0.1394, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.45/6.85 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0843*1.1 = 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.93/13.65 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0481*2 = 0.0962(although revenue decrease but offset by high tax rate), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.06/12.79
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0266*4 = 0.1064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/7.99
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0135*4 = 0.054, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/15.74
- No estimate for 2009 Q4 result
- No estimate for 2009 Q3 result
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0362*4 = 0.1448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.29/6.94 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.17/4.04 (DPS 0.025)

MUHIBAH latest news (English)

MUHIBAH latest news (Chinese)


ben said...


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cwyeoh stock analysis said...

Hi Ben, added your blog to my blog list, request you to put my blog in your page also, thanks.

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