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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

KLCI Stock - AIRASIA / 5099 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)10,223,354,934 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.68-0.03)/0.2082 = 17.53 (High)
Target Price2.91+0.03 = 2.94 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.2082, DPS 0.03)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to uptrend and selling volume is low
Revenue increased 0.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.9%, eps increased 46.1% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 53.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, accounting ratio still acceptable, affect by oil price increasing
First Support Price3.6
Second Support Price3.3

Research House
Golman Sachs Target Price3.2 (2011-06-02)
Credit Suisse Target Price4.8 (2011-08-10)
HwangDBS Target Price4.5 (2011-08-10)
Maybank Target Price3.36 (2011-08-23)
Kenanga Target Price4.31 (2011-08-24)
MIDF Target Price4.15 (2011-08-24)
TA Target Price4.5 (2011-08-24)
CIMB Target Price3.98 (2011-09-20)
Macquarie Target Price4.15 (2011-09-22)
HSBC Target Price3.7 (2011-10-17)
UOB Target Price3.7 (2011-10-27)
Affin Target Price3.45 (2011-11-02)
ECM Target Price4.34 (2011-11-23)
HLG Target Price4.5 (2011-11-23)
RHB Target Price2.99 (2011-11-23)
AMMB Target Price5 (2011-12-13)
OSK Target Price4.57 (2011-12-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity19.45%
Dividend Yield0.82%
Profit Margin10.08%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.3241
Net Asset Value Per Share1.43
Net Tangible Asset per share1.43
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.57
Cash Per Share0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio1.6724
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6635
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.007
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.3972
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7056
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale30.7%
Days to sell the inventory2
Days to collect the receivables109
Days to pay the payables188

Technical Analysis
SMA 203.728 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 503.734 (Uptrend)
SMA 1003.53 (Downtrend)
SMA 2003.278 (Uptrend)
MACD0.053714 (Downtrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram-0.014932 (Downtrend 16 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q3 due to 8% growth in passenger volume while the average fare was 4% higher at RM180 as compared to RM173

- Higher pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to lower fuel expenses in FY10Q3

- Higher pbt than FY11Q2 due to tax & other income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0548*4*0.95 = 0.2082, estimate PE on current price 3.68 = 17.53(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/8.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0618*1.2)+(0.0618*1.2*1.1*3) = 0.3189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/9.16 (DPS 0.03)

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