KLCI Stock - AIRASIA / 5099 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	10,223,354,934 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.68-0.03)/0.2082 = 17.53 (High)
Target Price	2.91+0.03 = 2.94 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.2082, DPS 0.03)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD moving back to uptrend and selling volume is low
Comment	Revenue increased 0.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.9%, eps increased 46.1% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 53.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, accounting ratio still acceptable, affect by oil price increasing
First Support Price	3.6
Second Support Price	3.3
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Golman Sachs Target Price	3.2 (2011-06-02)
Credit Suisse Target Price	4.8 (2011-08-10)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.5 (2011-08-10)
Maybank Target Price	3.36 (2011-08-23)
Kenanga Target Price	4.31 (2011-08-24)
MIDF Target Price	4.15 (2011-08-24)
TA Target Price	4.5 (2011-08-24)
CIMB Target Price	3.98 (2011-09-20)
Macquarie Target Price	4.15 (2011-09-22)
HSBC Target Price	3.7 (2011-10-17)
UOB Target Price	3.7 (2011-10-27)
Affin Target Price	3.45 (2011-11-02)
ECM Target Price	4.34 (2011-11-23)
HLG Target Price	4.5 (2011-11-23)
RHB Target Price	2.99 (2011-11-23)
AMMB Target Price	5 (2011-12-13)
OSK Target Price	4.57 (2011-12-29)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	19.45%
Dividend Yield	0.82%
Profit Margin	10.08%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.3241
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.43
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.43
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.57
Cash Per Share	0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.6724
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.6635
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.007
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.3972
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.7056
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	30.7%
Days to sell the inventory	2
Days to collect the receivables	109
Days to pay the payables	188

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	3.728 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	3.734 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	3.53 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	3.278 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.053714 (Downtrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram	-0.014932 (Downtrend 16 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q3 due to 8% growth in passenger volume while the average fare was 4% higher at RM180 as compared to RM173

- Higher pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to lower fuel expenses in FY10Q3

- Higher pbt than FY11Q2 due to tax & other income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0548*4*0.95 = 0.2082, estimate PE on current price 3.68 = 17.53(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/8.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0618*1.2)+(0.0618*1.2*1.1*3) = 0.3189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/9.16 (DPS 0.03)

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