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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

KLCI Stock - DRBHCOM / 1619 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,059,797,807 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.1-0.04)/0.1422 = 14.49 (High)
Target Price1.99+0.04 = 2.03 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1422, DPS 0.04)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price maintain above near to SMA20 and upper bolinger band is open or below SMA20 and strong sustain above 2
Revenue decreased 20.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.9%, eps increased 25.9% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.3%, no cash generated from operating after deducted liabilities expenses hence increased borrowing and spent 20.7% of Group cash to cover other expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, all division revenue dropped compared to FY12Q1, lower inventory can indicate lower demand of Group products
First Support Price2.0
Second Support Price1.9

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price3.45 (2011-11-09)
RHB Target Price1.9 (2011-11-25)
HLG Target Price2.9 (2012-01-07)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity6.11%
Dividend Yield1.90%
Profit Margin11.11%
Tax Rate26.04%
Asset Turnover0.2567
Net Asset Value Per Share2.64
Net Tangible Asset per share2.53
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.82
Cash Per Share3.61
Liquidity Current Ratio0.6423
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.5096
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.414
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.8545
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7582
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-90.5%
Days to sell the inventory127
Days to collect the receivables86
Days to pay the payables843

Technical Analysis 
SMA 202.062 (Uptrend 3 days)
SMA 502.082 (Same)
SMA 1002.015 (Uptrend)
SMA 2002.111 (Same)
MACD0.015831 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram0.004917 (Uptrend 3 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to lower sales recorded by companies in the Automotive sector

- In FY11Q2, the Group had recognised a oneoff exceptional item i.e. negative goodwill of RM71.22 million arising from accretion of equity interest in EON Bhd. Excluding this exceptional item, the current financial period’s operating profits has dropped by RM28.06 million. The reduction was mainly attributable to lower share of results of associated companies

- Higher pbt than FY12Q1 is mainly contributed by higher share of results of jointly controlled entities and recognition of share of results of POS Malaysia Berhad

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (0.0471+0.0319)*2*0.9 = 0.1422(exclude RM80 million other income and revenue drop), estimate PE on current price 2.1 = 14.49(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0471+0.0374)*2*0.9 = 0.1521, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14/10.59 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.057+0.0374)*2*1.05 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.58/9.56 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.057*4*0.8 = 0.1824, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.46/9.02 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0684*4*0.8 = 0.2189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.19/5.57 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1873*0.95 = 0.1779, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.59/5.79 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0493*4*0.95 = 0.1873, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.09/5.02 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0428*4 = 0.1712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.42/5.37 (DPS 0.04)

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