KLCI Stock - A&M / 5959 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	151,501,477 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	0.415/0.0407 = 10.20 (Moderate)
Target Price	0.0407*12.0 = 0.49 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.0407)
Decision	BUY if stock price below SMA20 and volume increase
Comment	Revenue increased 39.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 34.7%, eps decreased 42.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 44.7%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio compared to historical quarter still acceptable
First Support Price	0.415
Second Support Price	0.39
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	3.89%
Dividend Yield	-
Profit Margin	17.98%
Tax Rate	24.53%
Asset Turnover	0.1935
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.32
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.33
Cash Per Share	0.22
Liquidity Current Ratio	4.6832
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.5536
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.939
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2795
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2136
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	262.5%
Days to sell the inventory	969
Days to collect the receivables	155
Days to pay the payables	264

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	0.424 (Downtrend 4 days)
SMA 50	0.429 (Same)
SMA 100	0.428 (Same)
SMA 200	0.452 (Same)
MACD	-0.001013 (Downtrend 2 days)
MACD Histogram	-0.000316 (Downtrend 1 day)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):
- Higher revenue mainly attributable to higher revenue recognised by the Property Division

- Higher pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to improved profit margin achieved by the Property and Construction Division

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to the gain on sale of land in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0136+0.009)*2*0.9 = 0.0407, estimate PE on current price 0.415 = 10.2
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0312*0.9 = 0.0281, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.08/13.7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0066+0.009)*2 = 0.0312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.03/14.59
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0417*1.05 = 0.0438, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/11.07
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0417*1.1 = 0.0459(0.0417 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.73/9.91
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0376*1.05 = 0.0395(5% increase from 0.0376), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.32/12.41
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0376, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.35/15.43
- Estimate 2009 eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0297+(0.041+0.0301)/2 = 0.0475, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.79/11.05
- Estimate 2009 eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0518+(0.0089-0.0035) = 0.0572, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.99/8.22
- Estimate 2009 eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0518+(0.0015-0.0007) = 0.0526, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.02/7.41
- Estimate 2009 eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0518, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.27/5.02

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