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Saturday, January 28, 2012

KLCI Stock - SIME / 4197 - 2012 Quarter 1

SIME DARBY BERHAD

Company Description
SIME DARBY BERHAD, formerly Synergy Drive Bhd, is an investment holding company engaged in the trading and marketing of commodities. The Company operates in six segments: plantations, which is engaged in palm oil refining and fractionation, and oil palm cultivation; property, which is engaged in property development, management and investment, as well as the provision of golf and other recreational services; industrial, which is engaged construction of highways and railways, buildings, international airports and dams, powering marine engines for police launchers and fishing trawlers at sea; motor vehicles, which is engaged in the assembly and distribution of vehicles, provision of after-sale services, and hire purchase and lease financing; energy and utilities, which is engaged in engineering design and fabrication, system integration, power generation, treatment and supply of treated water, and general trading, services and others.

Company Info
Listing Date1979-12-28
Market Capital (Capital Size)54,505,836,947 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryOil Palm & Others Crop
Sub IndustryIndustrial Engineering Services
Websitehttp://www.simedarby.com/

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(9.07-0.3)/0.7863 = 11.15 (Moderate)
Target Price12.58+0.3 = 12.88 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.7863, DPS 0.3)
DecisionBUY if MACD moving back to uptrend
Comment
Revenue decreased 15.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 27.5%, eps decreased 18.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 64.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 7.4% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, most segment revenue lower than preceding quarter, CPO price uptrend at above 3.1k
First Support Price9.0
Second Support Price8.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
AMMB Target Price10.6 (2011-04-26)
CIMB Target Price10.9 (2011-05-27)
OSK Target Price8.47 (2011-05-30)
Credit Suisse Target Price8 (2011-06-21)
Kenanga Target Price11.06 (2011-07-26)
Affin Target Price11.09 (2011-08-10)
HwangDBS Target Price10.4 (2011-08-11)
UOB Target Price10.4 (2011-09-21)
ECM Target Price9.16 (2011-11-29)
HLG Target Price9.08 (2011-11-29)
Maybank Target Price8.5 (2011-12-15)
TA Target Price10.1 (2012-01-04)
MIDF Target Price11 (2012-01-10)
RHB Target Price10.65 (2012-01-12)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.83%
Dividend Yield2.43%
Profit Margin13.11%
Tax Rate24.56%
Asset Turnover1.0267
Net Asset Value Per Share4.17
Net Tangible Asset per share4.16
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.13
Cash Per Share0.87
Liquidity Current Ratio1.7586
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.019
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3987
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.715
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.409
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale22.2%
Days to sell the inventory89
Days to collect the receivables56
Days to pay the payables75

Technical Analysis
SMA 209.091 (Uptrend 70 days)
SMA 508.929 (Uptrend)
SMA 1008.609 (Uptrend)
SMA 2008.711 (Uptrend)
MACD0.128481 (Downtrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram-0.014749 (Downtrend 6 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 mainly due to higher average crude palm oil (CPO) price realised of RM2,946 against RM2,511 per tonne and Fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production is higher by 8.2%, driven by both Malaysia and Indonesia of 7.3% and 10.1% respectively. Property got higher revenue due to higher percentage of property development works completed and sales in the Group’s property development townships at USJ Heights and Denai Alam

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q4 mainly due to the lower average CPO price realised of RM2,946 per tonne as compared to RM3,114 per tonne in the preceding quarter. In addition, the midstream and downstream activities registered a higher loss of RM38.2 million as compared to RM27.5 million in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1787*4*1.1 = 0.7863, estimate PE on current price 9.07 = 11.15(DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6098*1.1 = 0.6708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.27/9.99 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.146+0.1365)*2 = 0.565, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/14.94 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.146+0.1089)*2 = 0.5098(cpo price decreasing but offset by contracts awarded), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.22/17.01 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1271*4*1.1 = 0.5592(ROE 3.5% per quarter with condition CPO price continue maintain high), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/15.22 (DPS 0.1)
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.22/19.59 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.44/23.76(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.43/21.59 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.35/18.91 (DPS 0.27)

SIME latest news (English)

SIME latest news (Chinese)

Daily Palm Oil Prices

Crude Palm Oil Future



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2011-11-2520121N/AN/A-4.14%4.14%110636001106360014505001450500107370010737000.17870.17874383410017928800829900259053007044001122900551004930800418500363400456740060095006009500533643602011-09-3013.11%24.56%1.0267-4.174.162.130.871.75861.0190.39870.7150.40922.2%895675
2011-08-25201149.27.00.225.29%14.77%130590004185880020231005450600131260036645000.21840.609842856500180389007873002481760037026001798500147170044678001904100432400490020060095006009500528836002011-06-3015.49%31.79%0.996914.43134.03.982.210.921.75981.04880.41910.75070.420923.5%895983
2011-05-27201139.38.55-3.54%10.14%10598600296640001266300344790082010023519000.13650.3914408332001763490072650023198300189910014123007732004408900486800286400412250060095006009500548667352011-03-3111.95%32.31%0.9521-3.743.722.450.791.62910.93030.36840.78480.431920.8%906181
2011-02-24201129.48.78-3.86%6.74%10282500190654001241000218160087710015318000.14600.254940097500173594007169002273810015874001219600237004411800367800391500480330060095006009500542056902010-12-3112.07%25.63%0.894-3.663.652.470.921.65790.98150.44490.78830.432922.7%906282
2010-11-26201119.498.610.083.00%3.00%878290087829009406009406006547006547000.10890.108938150200163284006853002182180069850062490054500438880073600128100451690060095006009500525230302010-09-3010.71%26.87%0.8912-3.523.52.50.841.65321.0060.44230.77250.42822.0%836277
2010-08-26201049.167.780.030.37%3.44%921180032951600250001741500774007268000.01290.12093757760016446700680800211309003654300288470053920031319007696001308800444070060095006009500473548602010-06-300.27%313.20%0.876965.15533.43.382.330.841.64190.99340.44380.80420.437722.1%856383
2010-05-27201038.27.47-1.42%3.71%7570700237398004890017165003086008042000.05140.133837456000157904006888002166560023595001193400618000318480011661001784100496890060095006009500470543852010-03-310.65%-0.835-3.493.472.260.911.79711.13720.51230.75280.421627.2%897278
2010-02-25201028.937.470.071.91%4.97%843270016169100783200176540042820011128000.07130.1852367759001439580066020022380100145590068540037140032820007705001141900442390060095006009500507802752009-12-319.29%40.65%0.8478-3.613.592.350.811.89841.19440.49410.66280.391428.5%887576
2009-11-25201019.198.28-2.98%2.98%773640077364009822009822006846006846000.11390.113936042900130732006620002296970087990036410052003303200515800521000382420060095006009500539653102009-09-3012.70%26.61%0.8336-3.713.692.430.711.72561.04230.4050.5860.362725.5%937577
2009-08-27200949.248.190.1534.47%10.36%7535000310139001107700307160098400022801000.16370.37943543990013434100621000220058009373001582300185780057675006450002502800326470060095006009500495182802009-06-3014.70%8.88%0.875121.71763.563.542.330.611.70090.99690.34290.62820.379124.0%947481
2009-05-25200938.556.7-0.73%6.31%747400023478900315500196390015060012961000.02510.215734082000135295005338002055250034700010514001365400572800013984002763800296420060094006009400417653302009-03-314.22%47.48%0.9565-3.333.312.10.561.78270.99540.34040.67580.39723.7%956872
2009-02-26200927.055.30.051.35%5.57%729990016004900395500164840027850011455000.04630.19063446050013904300533100205562009800008055001275700568390017855003061200262270060094006009400345540502008-12-315.42%27.64%0.9799-3.333.311.740.571.93381.10310.36260.69440.403525.9%957179
2008-11-28200915.954.94-3.76%3.76%87050008705000125290012529008670008670000.14430.14433692390013878800582800230451002001003296001521005740600529700681800505880060094006009400351549902008-09-3014.39%29.79%0.9362-3.743.721.570.952.10461.33570.59810.61790.375930.5%897286
2008-08-26200846.855.450.444.60%15.82%91217003404470014537005206700102130035124000.16990.59513653750014332600536300222049003847200118550025666005714100266170095100580920060095005902200387612752008-06-3015.94%24.48%0.931810.83853.673.661.761.082.00391.30130.64390.66140.392329.6%876894
2008-05-28200839.556.25-5.30%12.12%86411002492300015753003753000108960024911000.18130.42493397530013416200474900205591001901200457600184280055800001443600399200518080060094005862200555869502008-03-3118.23%29.56%0.9642-3.433.412.710.942.12521.43360.66130.6680.394929.2%747282
2008-02-272008211.98.50.053.96%6.94%8101300162819001159500217770080000014016000.13270.242433290700130882004824002020250099300010740014810005603000885600595400500760060305005782400723660002007-12-3114.31%27.23%0.9373-3.413.43.530.922.1481.43930.68390.66370.393129.8%757078
N/A20081N/AN/A-N/AN/A81806008180600101820010182006016006016000.10890.1089N/AN/A-N/A5696001108005465005632000680400133900576590055219005521900574277602007-09-3012.45%31.11%N/A-N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A-N/AN/A
2007-08-2820074N/AN/A0.2523.26%12.20%7836500282302001087800357290063670023864000.11500.4388332138001365970021998001955410028698001627001262400385510030325001770100562520055346005438000531321602007-06-3013.88%30.72%0.653321.8763.193.183.021.12.01631.38230.69420.78710.411341.1%10186102
2007-05-3020073N/AN/A-4.51%16.51%708630020393700738400248510047770017497000.08800.32731892950083336009815001059590016984007780089200038439001776200884200472810054307005346300439886702007-03-3110.42%27.59%0.7323-1.81.784.550.681.90681.27480.55790.86680.440243.4%12099125
2007-02-2820072N/AN/A0.058.36%12.36%6775700133074001115400174670086010012720000.16070.2388182373007949800974300102875007031001930006655003882200896100230600411280053524005327700385372802006-12-3116.46%15.64%N/A-1.751.734.160.621.80741.09690.51570.85360.4359N/A-N/AN/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAvailable-for-sale investment (A-0)Biological assets (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Derivative assets (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Land held for property development (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Trade receivables (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Cash held under housing development act (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Property development costs (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other long-term provisions (L-0)Retirement benefits obligations (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deferred income (L-1)Derivative liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Progress billings (L-1)Provision for liabilities (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
201211503002439900669500--84200147290030270040230084200010697001286200038110046007006498007614004136009860076310002070700210880048229001763004865001390039110006640010660071920055900145400-188003383900458006473008151800829900
201141255002429700622400--860007010002803003824008937001206500125168003992004911300616400786000390000175900735540020493002022500490620017350048240022100400750069000934006945007760077200-223003054900-6170008647500787300
2011318590024067005979003600-1356007236002369004684008258001228200127260003271004165300576700140005360001785006567900723100242670057793001650004714003480039395003880011490054350066500109000480700-3154300-4752008041300726500
20112182300239670063370010400-10080071270023110046860084340012133001249150032050048386006611009000460600111400584990069760025113005353000162800470800514004161300346001182004392006940063600--3706700-4846007596800716900
20111210800239170061650022800-10770069080021980047960080220012255001212240031640045796004888008100525800138600508680058860023297005198000168500491200610003997400347001165003733006940091000--3604700-4928006827900685300
201041551002417500613700--108900625500215900412100674100129000012130200314700449120054210010500552600-521650058160021383005087100159700495100-42873005120011310033140063400---3302300-5198007123400680800
201032263002409200547700--12210064150043010039930058590024376001018020030450050128004520003200518400-496090055970020794005585200156900512700-4318000384009660042500072500-420700-2877600-7605006111500688800
201022306002391500533300--1209005948005142004079006378002445600988410022780044504004390005200529300-496950036760019979006028500156900497400-36895004590010970039830070500---3297900-1906005939100660200
201012313002369700573200--12450062520052170030660060480024250009799700223700387790040210019500520600-532580042550018964005769700150900496000-17003004480011250043460072400--40003964700-1882005904800662000
200942200002323300576000--12940060710053090031640060520024227009439600227100331000032750058500593000-562670037680018409005908800155000488600-20128005790011250038820076400---3594200-2043006344200621000
200932231002125300725000--11210065630050140029900047450023559008784900200200301200035310098400268100-583900035090019440005758800152800802100-250820027300152600313200--225400171003209400-1772005944200533800
200922430002153300755200--11120064450057460030060045880023180008546600216800297980042110026800340500-593890033670018529006241200153100774100-342390057600116200305200----2443500-1471006483600533100
200912816002277900617600--10350011072003980024020054670024517008942500242400532240038170027200203400-552380029760018096006507100151900755100-33137002890091600685600----1600800-1862007065000582800
200843168002245000712000--810001109000210020950062400025174008382700191900599420047950020600264400-506570019760019981006126000139000750700-318910074700125700646800----1639900-1632007603500536300
200832760003169900680500-7100609009241002700216900690200148220081136002872005205900414700-136900-450400028100013751006146400142400855100-38122001840088300571600--222300-1002300-2178006485800474900
200822774003222500717300-3900650009184007800177700647000147710080759002818005098100447700-140500-437370025420013733005731400139700815500-39313003960052900422800----1421700-2436006021100482400
200743892002238800637900--865001021200770015910065210026004007626700994005666000425900785500148000-451980013710010441004968400140300921600-37068002360091600330300--987001787002399300-16340056054002199800
20073343200258300366300-65006900031990063001993002992005191003896400-3699700-833900157300-33207001279008711003635400-207700-1493900--228700--917004445001317500-1644004385200981500
20072347200256800359100-660070500304800440020210029530051970037987004704003310500-24900151000-37026001427008583003411700-212800-1318100--225600----1992200-1583004042800974300

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDiscontinued operationInterest on series B redeemable convertible preference sharesShare of net profit of jointly controlled entity
201211106360035620070300193300977710020600407002060015200-5100
2011413059000643100958003471001135140067400478001980021500-18100
2011310598600409200838002888009620400370003690040500--5700
2011210282500318100842002013009224000458003730017600--10500
20111878290025270080100269800807280033200346006600--400
20104921180078300725002455009422600241003270023300--6800
201037570700228600711002058007360100311002710026800--448100
20102843270031840077900240200784100036600272007600--5600
201017736400261400569001764006920000362002130021300--3700
20094753500098400570003886006835900253003660041200--800
200937474000149800678002029007250100151002300010500--77000
20092729990010930064800284400718960077004650014300--4800
200918705000373300630001382007601400126005260018200--3300
200849121700355800508002434007974000766006360049100-0700
200838641100465600527001770007275600201006420020700-0600
200828101300315700912002099007137700438005680019600-0800
200818180600316800727001199007286100998005770018500-300-
2007478365003342007330046530072472001169007440030700-3001100
200737086300203700783001171006474000570005490031900-300200
200726775700174400775006458006299900809005270018300-100200

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentPlantationHealthcarePropertyIndustrialMotorsEnergy & UtilitiesHealthcare & Others
20121471003900032128008670042760031739003894100260400-
20114--4024300-75370032841004580700581900133900
20113--3390200-48370023038003536800758100126000
20112--3215400-42820023287003615900550900143400
20111505003320025384007800032900023682003091900252400-
20104--2876200-58820022710002998800353300124300
20103--2524000-52000018731002374900160100118600
20102--2737200-40550020861002527400542100134400
20101--2720300-27080020011002167100454600122500
20094--2162700-51440019512002188400613500104800
20093--2430200-32670018575001889700799100170800
20092--2573800-33540018981001475200844300173100
20091--3491200-23100021633001957000682500180000
20084--3722400-54400017901001935300863800266100
20083--3666300-34710016868001935500836400169000
20082--3015400-23490018301002057800788900174200
20081--2758200-29400019156001997700675800539300
20074--2526100-48220015006001942300787700597600
20073--1886200-42720018930001718800565900595200
20072--3752400-784200327530033560009469001192600

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentPlantationHealthcarePropertyIndustrialMotorsEnergy & UtilitiesHealthcare & Others
2012110004210093830068005320032420015360046800-
20114--1269700-2357003627001887002540044700
20113--674100-6440023800016140014460011200
20112--827400-66800217500123700386006400
2011174001020049270073005430022730014880049100-
20104--390900-11150021650015010073050046500
20103--433800-1833001565008130045930042000
20102--642000-1148001891008130017600013500
20101--631100-41900185800622006550016100
20094--544700-222700225800424006050010500
20093--143200-83200187300232003520010500
20092--139700-46400189100757001930020800
20091--968200-581002473003680029300800
20084--1023800-195200201500171008180015200
20083--1266000-93900129300489001790023600
20082--847500-33500175600601006380083200
20081--695100-8330017820030300611001400
20074--410700-190800153300417003935006500
20073--379900-116700186100237006270024900
20072--830000-1975003055002300552300800

Financial Quarter Segments Associate
yearqrtOthersPlantationPropertyIndustrialMotorsEnergy & UtilitiesHealthcare & Others
2012161005300730058001100500-
20114-2020010300600031008002500
20113-85001350055003200210013400
20112-810066006000190011004400
2011161007004400500024001200-
20104-168006700480036001900100
20103-200012500320034004504008000
20102-590052003002800200-
20101-25001710024001600700700
20094-1600180002300300520016200
20093-818002100290010046005600
20092-800263003800-380015600
20091-580051003600-39003100
20084-373003600320037009001100
20083-370093003000160010005900
20082-700160002100100015002500
20081-4600790031003006002000
20074-24000----17000
20073-------
20072-------

Monthly Business Data
yearmthCrude Palm OilFresh Fruit BunchesPalm Kernel
20111220240781676545842
20111121154486131647745
20111023398994986852602
20119251613102925156988
2011821134184119747786
2011723087591276151352
2011622825491264450729
2011523213691646151715
2011421493186677647617
2011320860686266946595
2011216594967896935898
2011116746870165838574
20101219726080085642687
20101120652286406147287
20101022100793490550774
2010920278287329646576
2010820297086644147501
2010719433883230644062
2010623441981394052208
2010517648873897338958
2010416650969369039130
2010317133072230239348
2010214272559577231624
2010117168071624538169
20091220240084063745413
20091121184990136649401
200910253563108022457962
2009920288184936744059
2009821747589948647750
2009720863098912545863
2009622778791789449983
2009520249781710444251
2009417914474519241673
2009317222072744842223
2009215669464655735085
2009118167176166042697

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables



6-Months Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING




1-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

5-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

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