KLCI Stock - TGUAN / 7034 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	129,401,535 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.23-0.05)/0.2664 = 4.43 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.60+0.05 = 1.65 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.2664, DPS 0.05)
Decision	BUY if stock price near to SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 11% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15%, eps decreased 28.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 60.8%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but still spent 22.4% of Group cash for investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand is good, plastics products division (main profit contributor) growth
First Support Price	1.18
Second Support Price	1.1
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	11.61%
Dividend Yield	4.07%
Profit Margin	4.42%
Tax Rate	13.59%
Asset Turnover	1.5654
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.23
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.23
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.52
Cash Per Share	0.4
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.3273
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3341
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.4416
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4579
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.314
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	23.9%
Days to sell the inventory	69
Days to collect the receivables	57
Days to pay the payables	51

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.194 (Uptrend 19 days)
SMA 50	1.164 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.12 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.096 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.024827 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram	0.004747 (Uptrend 13 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to the increase in export volume of the group's products (higher demand for the group's plastic packaging products)

- Higher pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to the increase in revenue and better margin

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to the unrealised loss on derivatives contracts with a negative impact of RM1.43 million from the Group's hedging activities as the USD and JPY strengthen unexpectedly against the RM

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2664, estimate PE on current price 1.23 = 4.43(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0603+0.0729)*2 = 0.2664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2129*1.05 = 0.2235, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.86/3.85 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1935*1.1 = 0.2129, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.93/4.23 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.045*4 = 0.18(profit margin around 4%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.89 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.19(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1351*1.1 = 0.1486 (10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.81/4.98 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1351 (revenue growth but cost also increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.92/5.26 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/5.45 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1138, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.63 (DPS 0.02)

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