BHIC / 8133 - 2009 Q3

TA Securities Research TP: 6.1 (03 Dec 09)
My TP: 5.64 (PE 14, EPS 0.3984, DPS 0.055)
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Bad cash flow

My opinion based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.57% to 6.63%
- Revenue compare to last Q increased 19.88% to 144206 was due to progress billing on milestones achieved for various project
- Profit compare to last Q increased 40.49% to 24750 because increased progress billing and improved share of results in associates
- Equity compare to last Q increase 7.33% to 373442, assets increased 1.61% to 507546 and liabilities decreased 11.53% to 134104
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 7.33% to 373442
- Cash flow very bad, cash at end of financial period was decreasing to 33232
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 2.52% to 17.16%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0765 to 0.3591, average range
- Receivables compare to last Q increased 12.45% to 235244
- Long term or short term borrowing increase a lot
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate PE on current price 4.95 = 12.42
- From date 2009-08-07 to 2009-11-12 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-10 was 5.35 and lowest price on 2009-10-28 was 4.73. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.86/16.68
- From date 2009-05-16 to 2009-08-06 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-05 was 4.86 and lowest price on 2009-05-18 was 3.24. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.72/13.15
- From date 2009-02-18 to 2009-05-15 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-12 was 3.38 and lowest price on 2009-06-16 was 2.4. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/9.97
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.055 (proposed 5.5% on 2008 Q4), 2008 = 0.015 (proposed 1.5% on 2007 Q4)
- Boustead Naval Shipyard (BNS) has received Letter of Award from MOD at a total sum of RM703.8mn (4 year duration)