BSTEAD / 2771 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 4.96 (PE 10, EPS 0.4964, DPS 0.3)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, high dividend

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.46% to 4.68% but lower than last year 9.55%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 11.19% to 1419107 and profit also increased 83.56% to 86163, mainly due to FFB crop rose 15%, Heavy Industries Division’s got improvements in billings and margins, Property Division’s 15% lower mainly due to lower contribution from the hotel operations, Finance & Investment Division’s largely improved on stronger contributions from Affin and BH Insurance, Manufacturing Division turned in a consistent set of results, while the Trading Division’s profit improved as it benefited from the stockholding gains from BHPetrol and profit from the LCCT Baggage Handling system project; As compare to last year revenue drop 25.73% and profit drop 47.46%, mainly due to lower average palm oil price and FFB crop 5% lower, Heavy Industries Division due to slower progress of work and cost escalation, Property Division's 44% lower due to the start up cost of the recently opened Royale Chulan Hotel and absence of corporate lot sales, Finance & Investment Division improved due to BH
Insurance increase in underwriting and investment income, Affin Group increases in net interest and Islamic banking income, while loan provision was also lower and Trading Division posted a lower profit
- Equity compare to last Q increased 24.03% to 4147754, assets increased 1.56% to 8839714 and liabilities decreased 12.46% to 4691960; As compare to last year equity increased 26.08%, assets increased 2.15% and liabilities decreased 12.53%
- Got FCF 42909, NCF -157620
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 2.39% to 6.07% but lower than last year 2.33%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.4715 to 1.1312 and compare to last year also decreased 0.4994
- 7.5 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1241*4 = 0.4964, estimate PE on current price 3.5 = 6.45 (DPS 0.3)
- From date 2009-08-22 to 2009-11-23 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-20 was 3.63 and lowest price on 2009-11-06 was 3.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0721*4 = 0.2884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/10.58 (DPS 0.3)
- From date 2009-05-19 to 2009-08-21 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 4.52 and lowest price on 2009-08-20 was 3.56. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0934*4 = 0.3736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.3/8.73 (DPS 0.3)
- From date 2009-02-27 to 2009-05-18 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-13 was 3.74 and lowest price on 2009-03-17 was 3.06. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1699*4 = 0.6796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.06/4.06 (DPS 0.3)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.175 (proposed 7.5 sen on Q3, 5 sen on Q2 and 5 sen on Q1), 2008 = 0.3 (proposed 25% on Q4, 15% on Q3, 10% on Q2 and 10% on Q1), 2007 = 0.3 (proposed 36% on Q4, 14% on Q3 and 10% on Q2)