MALTON / 6181 - 2010 Q1

S&P Research TP: 0.5 (03 Dec 09)
My TP: 0.74 (PE 10, eps 0.0736)
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Although profit increased but revenue drop, cash level in negative

My opinion based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.09% to 1.51%
- Revenue compare to last Q decreased 23.43% to 79717 because lower billings from construction and project management division
- Profit compare to last Q increased 258.82%, mainly attributed to improved contributions from the property development division and the positive effects of costs containment measures
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 0.31%, assets decreased 3.42% to 780503 and liabilities decreased 6.86% to 356456
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 100%
- Got little FCF 1803, but cash at end of financial period was negative
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 6.32% to 8.03%
- DE compare to last quarter decreased 0.059 to 0.8406
- No dividend recommended
- My highest estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0184*4 = 0.0736, estimate PE on current price 0.38 = 5.16
- My lowest estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate PE on current price 0.38 = 19
- From date 2009-08-29 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-14 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-11-03 was 0.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.5/17.5
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-28 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 0.43 and lowest price on 2009-07-13 was 0.3. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.003*4 = 0.012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 35.83/25
- From date 2009-02-20 to 2009-05-27 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-14 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 0.26. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0067*4 = 0.0268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.55/9.7
- Divident in sen 2007 = 0.01 (proposed 1% after 2007 Q4)
- The acquisition of 20% equity interest in Austin Heights Sdn Bhd completed at the end of the quarter is expected to contribute to the medium and long term profitability of the Group.