ADVENTA / 7191 - 2009 Q4

My TP: 2.45 (PE 16, EPS 0.1488, DPS 0.07)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.41% to 2.91% but still lower than last year 0.3%
- Revenue compare to last Q grow 2.82% to 74752 and profit increased 17.76% to 5398, mainly due to progressive addition of capacity in the surgical and dental gloves products and cost reduction exercises
- Revenue compare to last year grow 15.15% but profit drop 0.68%,
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.17% to 185281, assets increased 0.64% to 344228 and liabilities increased 0.03% to 158947
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 1.22% to 1212
- Got FCF 3463, NCF 1529
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.91% to 7.22% but lower than last year 1.15%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0097 to 0.1343 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0429
- Proposed 4 sen dividend
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate PE on current price 2.97 = 19.49(DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-09-16 to 2009-12-22 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-12-21 was 2.96 and lowest price on 2009-10-02 was 1.55. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.73/11.68 (DPS 0.06)
- From date 2009-07-01 to 2009-09-15 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-10 was 2.11 and lowest price on 2009-07-07 was 1.08. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.84/9.375 (DPS 0.06)
- From date 2009-03-28 to 2009-06-30 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-12 was 1.22 and lowest price on 2009-03-31 was 0.82. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.61/8.26 (DPS 0.06)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03 (proposed 3 sen on Q1), 2008 = 0.044 (proposed 4.4 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.03 (proposed 6% on Q4)