TONGHER / 5010 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 1.11 (PE 10, EPS 0.1112)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Although profit increased but revenue still low, overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q rebound from negative to 1.16% but still lower than last year 2.04%
- Revenue compare to last Q grow 7.91% to 48468 and profit rebound from negative to 3538, but still lower than last year 6223, mainly due to higher cost of raw materials
- Equity compare to last Q increase 1.34% to 304299, assets increased 1.34% to 345167 and liabilities increased 1.32% to 40868
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 1.63% to 29303
- Got FCF 30385, net cash flow increased 11380
- Profit margin compare to last Q rebound from negative to 7.3% and also higher than last year 6.03%
- DE compare to last Q are same at 0.1343 and also better than last year 0.2665, this is historical lowest
- No dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate PE on current price 1.66 = 14.93
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on 2008 Q4), 2007 = 0.16 (proposed 16 sen on 2007 Q4)