KELADI / 6769 - 2010 Q3

My TP: 0.255(PE 11, EPS 0.0232)+0.015(DPS) = 0.27
My stock cost: 0.205
My total dividend collect: 0.035
My decision: HOLD
Reason: Revenue increased, good cash flow and high dividend
Risk: 1st quarter normally low revenue

My opinion based on 2010 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE increasd to 3.3%, average range
- Higher profit was mainly attributed to completion in construction of existing project (Taman Lagenda Phases 1 & 2) and revenue derived from new launching (Taman Lagenda Phases 3 & 4)
- DE dropped to 8.91%, payables and accruals decreased to 13116, average range
- Got FCF 19113, i believe it use this money to reduce the liabilities, company cash still got 53610, hjgher than last year
- Profit margin increased to 31.86%, development cost of projects started reducing to normal range
- No interim dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0078*4 = 0.0312, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate PE on current price 0.15 = 6.47
- From date 2009-09-26 to 2009-12-17 after 2010 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-16 was 0.16 and lowest price on 2009-10-12 was 0.145. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/11.69
- From date 2009-06-27 to 2009-09-25 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-27 was 0.175 and lowest price on 2009-09-03 was 0.145. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.42/8.63
- From date 2009-03-28 to 2009-06-26 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-10 was 0.18 and lowest price on 2009-03-30 was 0.12. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.52/9.68
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.015 (proposed 15% on 2009 Q4), 2008 = 0.025 (proposed 10% on 2008 Q3 and 15% on 2008 Q4), 2007 = 0.015 (proposed 15% on 2007 Q4)