MAHSING / 8583 - 2009 Q3

Maybank TP: 2.56
CIMB TP: 2.34
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Revenue decreased, bad cash flow and receivables too high, possibly bad debt

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE no surprise at around 3.2%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 19.19% to 135143 but profit grow 2.11% to 23523, mainly due to the cost reduced
- Equity compare to last Q increase 3.31% to 730096, assets increased 0.23% to 1206783 and liabilities decreased 4.15% to 476687
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 1.87% to 730096
- Cash flow was bad, cash at end of financial period was decreasing to 115278
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 3.63% to 17.41%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0508 to 0.6529, second low in historical
- Receivables hit historical high at 327147
- No dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.373*4 = 0.1492, estimate PE on current price 1.73(DPS 0.08) = 11.6
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-10-28 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-04 was 2.08 and lowest price on 2009-10-28 was 1.78. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-14 was 2.05 and lowest price on 2009-05-29 was 1.72. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 1.85 and lowest price on 2009-02-26 was 1.52. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.08 (proposed 16% on 2008 Q4), 2008 = 0.08 (proposed 16% on 2007 Q4)