HAIO / 7668 - 2010 Q2

OSK TP: 10.55
My TP: 8.17 (PE 8, EPS 0.9696, DPS 0.42)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.1% to 9.6% but still higher than last year 3.22%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 10.9% to 132374 but profit increased 9.33% to 20186, mainly due to focusing on high margin products from the wholesale and retail divisions reduction exercises
- Revenue compare to last year grow 51.65% and profit growth 85.38%, mainly due to higher sales generated by its principal subsidiaries, the MLM and retail divisions, and higher
rental income
- Equity compare to last Q increased 10.46% to 210185, assets increased 7.35% to 295407 and liabilities increased 0.36% to 85222
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 4.15% to 6626
- Got FCF 25227, NCF 24078
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 2.82% to 15.25% and also higher than last year 2.78%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0408 to 0.4055 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0551
- Declared 10% dividend
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate PE on current price 8.4 = 8.23(DPS 0.42)
- From date 2009-09-30 to 2009-12-22 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-11 was 7.99 and lowest price on 2009-09-30 was 6.03. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- From date 2009-06-27 to 2009-09-29 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-29 was 5.69 and lowest price on 2009-06-29 was 4.5. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- From date 2009-03-28 to 2009-06-26 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-12 was 4.44 and lowest price on 2009-03-3 was 3.36. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.1 (declare 10% on 2010 Q2), 2009 = 0.42 (proposed 32% on 2010 Q1 and 10% on 2009 Q2), 2008 = 0.4 (proposed 32% on 2009 Q1 and 8% on 2008 Q2)

Lesson learned:
- PE should use higher since revenue strong growth
- Bonus and share split announced maybe is a catalyst for stock price to shoot up