PETDAG / 5681 - 2010 Q2

My TP: 9.09+0.45 = 9.54 (PE 11, EPS 0.8268, DPS 0.45)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, 5% high dividend

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.1% to 4.57% but higher than last year 1.35%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 7.78% to 5151970 but profit drop 2.99% to 199217, mainly due to higher average product selling prices and higher operating expenditure; As compare to last year revenue drop 33.01% but profit growth 51.33%, mainly due to lower average product selling prices and higher product gross profit
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 1.05% to 4355222, assets increased 2.18% to 7463531 and liabilities increased 7.09% to 3108309; As compare to last year equity increased 6.58%, assets decreased 21.81% and liabilities decreased 43.06%
- Got FCF 590307, NCF 325345
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 0.43% to 3.87% but higher than last year 2.16%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0542 to 0.7137 but compare to last year decreased 0.6222
- 15 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate PE on current price 8.7 = 10.25 (DPS 0.48)
- From date 2009-08-26 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-19 was 9.15 and lowest price on 2009-09-28 was 8.43. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- From date 2009-05-26 to 2009-08-25 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-24 was 8.67 and lowest price on 2009-05-26 was 7.9. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-25 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-16 was 8 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 7.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0428*4 = 0.1712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 44.1/40.3 (DPS 0.45)
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.15 (declared 15 sen on Q2), 2009 = 0.45 (declared 33 sen on Q4 and 12 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.45 (declared 33 sen on Q4 and 12% on Q2), 2007 = 0.3 (declared 20% on Q2 and 10% on Q2)