GENM / 4715 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 3.52+0.07 = 3.59 (PE 14, EPS 0.2516, DPS 0.07)
My stock cost: 2.89
My decison: Hold
Reason: Undervalue
Risk: 4th quarter result maybe is not good as quarter 3

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.04% to 3.67% but lower than last year 0.55%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 11.12% to 1335901 and profit also growth 8.77% to 359456, mainly due to better underlying performance in the leisure and hospitality segment arising from improved luck factor in the premium players business; As compare to last year revenue growth 9.06% and profit also growth 5.54%, mainly due to higher volume of business but offset by impairment loss of RM48.6 million arising from long term investment and lower interest income
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 7.83% to 9806039, assets increased 6.3% to 11073197 and liabilities decreased 4.19% to 1267158; As compare to last year equity increased 21.46%, assets decreased 18.96% and liabilities increased 2.63%
- Got FCF 945360, NCF 699820
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 0.58% to 26.91% and also lower than last year 0.9%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0162 to 0.1292 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0237
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate PE on current price 2.74 = 10.89 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-08 was 2.92 and lowest price on 2009-10-05 was 2.71. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-28 was 3 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 2.53. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-27 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-25 was 2.79 and lowest price on 2009-03-20 was 1.9.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03 (declared 3 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.07 (declared 4 sen on Q4 and 3 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.0648 (declared 3.6 sen on Q4 and 2.88 sen on Q2), 2006 = 0.15 (declared 3 sen on Q4 and 12 sen on Q2)