PBBANK / 1295 - 2009 Q4

My TP: 10.71 + 0.55 = 11.26 (PE 13.62, EPS 0.786, DPS 0.55)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.02% to 5.79% but lower than last year 0.6%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 2.36% to 2495452 and profit also growth 6.13% to 678231, mainly due to a strong growth of net interest and financing income by 7.3% or RM86.8 million,
partially offset by higher other operating expenses by RM26.6 million; As compare to last year revenue drop 2.43% but profit growth 3.71%, due to a one-off goodwill income of RM200 million received from ING in respect of a regional strategic alliance on bancassurance distribution included in the previous year which is non-recurring in the current year
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 6.44% to 11715324, assets increased 3.87% to 217136154 and liabilities increased 3.73% to 205420830; As compare to last year equity increased 14.53%, assets increased 10.69% and liabilities also increased 10.48%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 2.27% to 692118 but higher than last year 0.01%
- Got FCF 7246168 and NCF 6950986
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.97% to 27.18% and also higher than last year 1.61%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.4591 to 17.5344 and compare to last year also decreased 0.6433
- 30 sen dividend declared
- Distribution of share dividend 68:1
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1965*4 = 0.786, estimate PE on current price 12(DPS 0.55) = 14.57
- From date 2009-10-16 to 2010-01-20 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-20 was 12.08 and lowest price on 2009-10-19 was 10.64. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1852*4 = 0.7408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.56/13.62 (DPS 0.55)
- From date 2009-07-21 to 2009-10-15 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-15 was 10.62 and lowest price on 2009-08-19 was 9.88. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.177*4 = 0.708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.22/13.18 (DPS 0.55)
- From date 2009-04-15 to 2009-07-20 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-20 was 10.3 and lowest price on 2009-04-22 was 8.3. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1744*4 = 0.6976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.05/11.18 (DPS 0.5)
- From date 2009-01-21 to 2009-04-14 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-02-19 was 9.15 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 7.05. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1949*4 = 0.7796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.1/8.4 (DPS 0.5)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.55 (declared 25% on Q4 and 30% on Q2), 2008 = 0.55 (declared 25% on Q4 and 30% on Q2), 2007 = 0.75 (declared 50% on Q4 and 25% on Q2)

Lesson learned
- EPS increased but highest price not increase, signal of over bought?