LEADER / 4529 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 1.16
My TP: 1.05 (PE 7, EPS 0.1452, DPS 0.03)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.24% to 2.49% but lower than last year 0.7%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 7.54% to 509775 and profit also growth 13.52% to 15831; As compare to last year revenue dropped 27.49% and profit also dropped 15.59%, mainly due to a 24% decline in revenue from the cable & wire business due to a steep decline in commodity metal prices
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.77% to 636412, assets increased 4.31% to 1216777 and liabilities also increased 6.05% to 580365; As compare to last year equity increased 8.12%, assets decreased 12% and liabilities also decreased 26.92%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 3% to 101325 and compare to last year also increased 4.33%
- Got FCF 199762, NCF 9846
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.17% to 3.11% and also higher than last year 0.44%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0282 to 0.9119 but compare to last year decreased 0.4373
- 1.5 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0363*4 = 0.1452, estimate PE on current price 0.92 = 6.13(DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-08-22 to 2009-11-30 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-09 was 0.825 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 0.725. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.032*4 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.21/5.43 (DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-21 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 0.85 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 0.64. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.3/5.43 (DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-02-21 to 2009-05-29 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-13 was 0.71 and lowest price on 2009-03-16 was 0.4. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0289*4 = 0.1156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.88/3.2 (DPS 0.03)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03(declared1.5 sen on Q3 and 1.5 sen on Q1), 2008 = 0.03 (declared 1.5% on Q3 and 1.5% after 2007 Q4), 2007 = 0.03 (declared 1.5 sen on Q3 and 1.5 sen on Q1)