TCHONG / 4405 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 4.12
My TP: 2.53 + 0.1 = 2.63 (PE 12, EPS 0.2108, DPS 0.1)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.03% to 2.33% but lower than last year 4.47%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 6.84% to 745768 but profit also dropped 0.45% to 34432, mainly due to the currency volatility and global shortage of inventory accounted for much of the operating profit variance; As compare to last year revenue dropped 25.61% and profit also dropped 63.91%, mainly due to recession, Total Industry Volume(TIV) of new vehicles in Malaysia for the first nine months of 2009 fell by 7.5% to 397,619 units from 429,913
- Equity compare to last Q increased 0.54% to 1475408, assets increased 10.02% to 2203778 and liabilities also increased 35.98% to 728370; As compare to last year equity increased 5.16%, assets increased 7.16% and liabilities also increased 11.45%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 3.83% to 4070 and also higher than last year 22.15%
- Got FCF 211237 and NCF 48559
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 0.33% to 4.62% and also lower than last year 4.9%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.1287 to 0.4937 and compare to last year also increased 0.0279
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate PE on current price 3.31 = 15.23(DPS 0.1)
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-11-18 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-18 was 2.61 and lowest price on 2009-08-20 was 1.9. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.88/8.52 (DPS 0.1)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 1.9 and lowest price on 2009-07-06 was 1.55. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.19/5.79 (DPS 0.1)
- From date 2009-02-21 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-25 was 1.64 and lowest price on 2009-02-23 was 1.17. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.06/6.29 (DPS 0.1)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (declared 10% on Q2), 2008 = 0.1 (recommended 10% on Q4 and declared 10% on Q2), 2007 = 0.075 (recommended 10% on Q4 and declared 5% on Q2)