JF APEX Securities TP: 0.83OSK TP: 1.01
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue, high DE, bad cash flow
My study based on 2009 Q5 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 5.86% to 14.76% but compare to last year was rebound from loss
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 3.66% to 254966 and profit also drop 24.48% to 32215 mainly due to positive income tax at last Q, profit before tax is higher than last Q because stronger investment performance; As compare to last year revenue drop 16.27% but profit rebounded from loss, significant improvement was mainly driven by a very strong turnaround performance on the Group’s investment portfolio
- Equity compare to last Q increased 5.49% to 218260, assets increased 0.09% to 2299048 but liabilities decreased 0.44% to 2080788; As compare to last year equity increased 55.71%, assets decreased 4.92% and liabilities also decreased 8.66%
- FCF -3665, NCF -7594
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 3.48% to 12.64% but compare to last year was rebounded from negative
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.5677 to 9.5335 and compare to last year also decreased 6.7176
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q5 result announced = 0.0216*4 = 0.0864, estimate PE on current price 0.69 = 7.99
- From date 2009-08-28 to 2009-10-29 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-28 was 0.77 and lowest price on 2009-09-01 was 0.535.
- From date 2009-05-08 to 2009-08-27 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-27 was 0.58 and lowest price on 2009-07-08 was 0.35.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-07 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-06 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-04-03 was 0.24.
- Divident in sen 2007 = 0.01826 (proposed 1.826 sen after Q1)