MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 6.48
My TP: 4.55 + 0.03 = 4.58 (PE 12, EPS 0.3792, DPS 0.031)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.5% to 9.26% and also higher than last year 6.49%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 9.51% to 200104 and profit also growth 33.39% to 35320, mainly due to increased level of activities; As compare to last year revenue growth 77.92% and profit also growth 336.75%, mainly due to increased level of activities
- Equity compare to last Q increased 11.72% to 381221, assets increased 18.23% to 628383 and liabilities also increased 29.9% to 247162; As compare to last year equity increased 30.49%, assets increased 63.87% and liabilities also increased 170.71%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 14.52% to 41596 and also higher than last year 37.5%
- Got FCF 80910 and NCF 80098
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 3.16% to 17.65% and also higher than last year 10.46%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0907 to 0.6483 and compare to last year also increased 0.3358
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate PE on current price 5.02 = 13.16(DPS 0.031)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-11 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-11 was 4.1 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 3.28. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.42 (DPS 0.031)
- From date 2009-05-14 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-14 was 3.51 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 1.46. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.07/9.48 (DPS 0.031)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-13 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-07 was 1.58 and lowest price on 2009-03-26 was 1.18. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.8/10.21 (DPS 0.045)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.016 (declared 5% on Q2 and 3% on Q1), 2008 = 0.045 (declared 7.5% on Q4, 5% on Q2 and 4% on Q1), 2007 = 0.08 (declared 8% on Q4, 4% on Q2 and 4% on Q2)