NAIM / 5073 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 4.12
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: 4th quarter low result

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.27% to 3.29% but higher than last year 0.77%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 7.53% to 144460 but profit dropped 5.55% to 21396; As compare to last year revenue growth 10.84% and profit also growth 43.76%, mainly due to efforts in controlling costs and its associate, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Berhad, contributed 20% to the earnings of the Group
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.24% to 650695, assets increased 1.92% to 979075 and liabilities also increased 1.29% to 328380; As compare to last year equity increased 10.26%, assets decreased 5.96% but liabilities decreased 1.63%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 0.12% to 23374 and compare to last year also decreased 3.49%
- Got FCF -13763, NCF -2611
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 2.05% to 14.81% but higher than last year 3.39%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0047 to 0.5047 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0609
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3, estimate PE on current price 3.43 = 6.13(DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-17 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-20 was 3.15 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 2.65.
- From date 2009-05-27 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 2.85 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 1.84.
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-26 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-06 was 1.95 and lowest price on 2009-03-19 was 1.1.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03(declared 3 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.13 (declared 5 sen on Q4 and 8 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.15 (declared 8% on Q3 and 7% on Q1)