OSK / 5053 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 2.15 (PE 10, EPS 0.21, DPS 0.05)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.19% to 2.34% and also higher than last year 1.17%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 2.11% to 227662 but profit dropped 6.56% to 34554; As compare to last year revenue dropped 8.29% and profit also dropped 36.75
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 14.35% to 1475564, assets increased 16.57% to 11028542 and liabilities also increased 23.45% to 9552978; As compare to last year equity decreased 11.87%, assets increased 40.97% and liabilities also increased 55.36%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 28.62% to 217192 and compare to last year also decreased 32.54%
- Got FCF 150338, NCF 229209
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 1.41% to 15.18% but higher than last year 5.37%
- DE compare to last Q increased 1.9822 to 6.4741 and compare to last year also increased 2.8016
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0525*4 = 0.21, estimate PE on current price 1.75 = 8.1(DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-28 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-20 was 1.56 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 1.38. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0570*4 = 0.228, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.83 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-27 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-10 was 1.56 and lowest price on 2009-06-22 was 1.29.
- From date 2009-02-27 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-11 was 1.45 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 0.83. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0240*4 = 0.096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/7.86 (DPS 0.075)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.025 (recommend 2.5 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.075 (recommend 2.5 sen on Q4 and 5 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.1 (recommend 10 sen on Q4)