3A / 0012 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 0.76 (PE 10, EPS 0.0764)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.03% to 6.55% and also higher than last year 2.65%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 0.09% to 45136 but profit growth 7.47% to 5898, the result is not materially different; As compare to last year revenue growth 17.45% and profit also growth 96.8%, mainly due to better demand for the Group's products and improvement in products margin
- Equity compare to last Q increased 7.01% to 90086, assets increased 4.45% to 147135 and liabilities also increased 0.64% to 57049; As compare to last year equity increased 17.18%, assets increased 6.61% but liabilities decreased 6.69%
- Got FCF 4769, NCF 4659
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.92% to 13.07% and also higher than last year 5.27%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.04 to 0.6333 and compare to last year also decreased 0.1619
- No dividend recommended
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate PE on current price 1.55 = 20.08 (DPS 0.016)
- From date 2009-08-14 to 2009-10-22 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-15 was 1.58 and lowest price on 2009-08-25 was 0.52. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.97/7.08 (DPS 0.01)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-13 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 0.6 and lowest price on 2009-05-29 was 0.345. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.38/12.14 (DPS 0.01)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-12 was 0.365 and lowest price on 2009-03-30 was 0.305. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.23/9.34 (DPS 0.01)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.016 (recommended 8% after Q3), 2008 = 0.01 (recommended 5% after Q3), 2007 = 0.012 (recommended 6% after Q3)