KNM / 7164 - 2009 Q3

My decison: Not BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 2.07% to 1.61% and also lower than last year 4.17%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 4.35% to 458348 but profit dropped 55.3% to 31923, mainly due to higher operating costs; As compare to last year revenue dropped 38.58% and profit also dropped 69.13%, mainly due to the reflective of global economy slowdown and the full effect of intangible asset amortization arising from Borsig acquisition
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.5% to 1988575, assets decreased 0.24% to 4241256 and liabilities also decreased 2.53% to 2252681; As compare to last year equity increased 11.18%, assets increased 9.36% and liabilities also increased 7.8%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 82.14% to 8732 and compare to last year also increased 252.52%
- Got FCF 248752, NCF 20209
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 9.3% to 6.96% and also lower than last year 6.9%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0584 to 1.1328 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0355
- No dividend recommended
- My estimate next Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324, estimate PE on current price 0.8 = 24.23(DPS 0.015)
- From date 2009-08-28 to 2009-11-26 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-19 was 0.86 and lowest price on 2009-09-14 was 0.695. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0181*4 = 0.0724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-27 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-05 was 1.06 and lowest price on 2009-07-13 was 0.715. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0250*4 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.45/7
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-13 was 0.845 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 0.32. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0214*4 = 0.0856, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.7/3.56 (DPS 0.015)
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.015 (approved 1.5 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.04 (approved 4 sen on Q4), 2006 = 0.05 (declared 5 sen after 2007 Q1)