MMCCORP / 2194 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 2.95 (19 Jan 10)
My decison: Not BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.86% to 0.94% but lower than last year 0.34%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 0.68% to 2167473 and profit largely improved to 90534, mainly due to improvement in results from Zelan Berhad and better share of profit from Double Track project due to no adjustment for additional cost made but offset by lower performance in energy and utilities division due to lower capacity factor in Malakoff‟s power plants and write back of provision for doubtful debts in Aliran Ihsan Resources Berhad; As compare to last year revenue dropped 4.84% and profit also dropped 20.02%, the performance affected by lower contribution from the transportation and logistics division due to the impact of the economic downturn, share of losses absorbed from Zelan Berhad, had an exceptional gain due to the disposal of a subsidiary and impact on the overall margin for Double Track Project
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.55% to 9680548, assets increased 1.21% to 38134346 and liabilities also increased 0.76% to 28453798; As compare to last year equity increased 6.61%, assets increased 12.24% and liabilities also increased 14.29%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 2.77% to 3486246 and compare to last year also increased 13.62%
- Got FCF 321066, NCF 735577
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 3.85% to 4.18% but lower than last year 0.92%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0521 to 2.9393 but compare to last year increased 0.1977
- No dividend recommended
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.035*4 = 0.14, estimate PE on current price 2.44 = 17.25(DPS 0.025)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-24 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-16 was 2.62 and lowest price on 2009-08-26 was 2.29.
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 2.73 and lowest price on 2009-05-29 was 1.77.
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 1.95 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 1.35.
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.025 (recommend 2.5 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.05 (recommend 5 sen on Q4)