PELIKAN / 5231 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 0.65 (PE 10, EPS 0.063, DPS 0.02)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Risk for 4th Q

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 2.95% to 1.52% and also lower than last year 1.37%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 8.93% to 312567 and profit also drop 65.17% to 9340 because affected by seasonality which experience stronger sales in mid year resulting from the “back to school” season in Europe; As compare to last year revenue drop 8.1% and profit also drop 44.68% because lower sales due to declined consumer spending in Europe
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.5% to 614952, assets decreased 0.86% to 1570109 and liabilities also increased 2.91% to 955157; As compare to last year equity increased 17.18%, assets decreased 1.9% and liabilities also decreased 6.08%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 0.97% to 26979 but compare to last year decreased 4.77%
- Got FCF 20042, NCF 10099
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 4.82% to 2.99% and also lower than last year 1.97%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0865 to 1.5532 and compare to last year also decreased 0.1896
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate 2010 eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.156, estimate PE on current price 1.37 = 8.65(DPS 0.02)
- My estimate 2009 Q4 eps = -0.1344/2 = -0.0672, hence 2009 eps = 0.1302-0.0672 = 0.063, estimate PE on current price 1.37 = 21.43(DPS 0.02)
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-11-26 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-07 was 1.64 and lowest price on 2009-11-05 was 1.34.
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-10 was 1.72 and lowest price on 2009-05-28 was 0.97.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-27 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-08 was 1.01 and lowest price on 2009-03-16 was 0.595.
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.02 (proposed 2 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.11 (proposed 6 sen on Q4, 3 sen on Q2 and 2 sen on Q1), 2006 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on 2007 Q1)