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Wednesday, August 1, 2012

KLCI Stock - DIALOG / 7277 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,775,542,781 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.4-0.029)/0.0812 = 29.20 (Moderate)
Target Price2.40+0.029 = 2.42 (PE 29.5, EPS 0.0812, DPS 0.029)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price strong sustain above SMA20 and SMA50 with MACD bullish trend start
Comment
Revenue increased 17.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.5%, eps decreased 16.3% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.8%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and also enough cash from financing to cover investing activities, margin decreasing, higher liquidity ratio and was indicate strong financial strength, lower gearing ratio and was a lot better of financial leverage compared to recent year, all collection/repayment period was good, benefit from Pengerang project
First Support Price2.38
Second Support Price2.3
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
MIDF Target Price2.8 (2012-02-15)
OSK Target Price2.99 (2012-05-11)
Maybank Target Price3.05 (2012-06-14)
AMMB Target Price2.85 (2012-06-25)
CIMB Target Price2.93 (2012-06-25)
HwangDBS Target Price2.95 (2012-06-25)
Kenanga Target Price3.09 (2012-06-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity29.31%
Dividend Yield1.21%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin10.30%
Net Profit Margin13.33%
Tax Rate19.52%
Asset Turnover0.8186
Net Asset Value Per Share0.52
Net Tangible Asset per share0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.35
Cash Per Share0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio2.6373
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.4359
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5069
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5363
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3407
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale44.8%
Days to sell the inventory23
Days to collect the receivables92
Days to pay the payables95

Technical Analysis
SMA 202.378 (Uptrend 9 days)
SMA 502.355 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.289 (Same)
SMA 2002.277 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.010309 ( 0.00041 )
Signal (9)0.012382 ( 0.000518 )
MACD Histogram0.002073 (Bearish trend 5 days)
Bolinger Upper Band2.444
Bolinger Lower Band2.312

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to consolidation of the revenue of the newly acquired fabrication and multi-disciplined engineering company, Fitzroy Engineering Group Limited, based in New Zealand. In addition, contribution from Malaysia and Asia operation such as Brunei, Thailand, Middle East and China, also increased significantly mainly due to higher revenue of Specialist Products & Services recorded

- Singapore operation had however registered lower revenue mainly affected by lesser works undertaken for its engineering & construction and plant maintenance activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 1215186*0.15/2243624 = 0.0812, estimate PE on current price 2.4 = 29.2(DPS 0.029)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 693386*0.24/1993555 = 0.0835, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.57/25.5 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.32/21.37 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4*1.2 = 0.1085, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.43/16.21 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0183+0.0193)*2*1.2 = 0.0902, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.59/24.05 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0183+0.0146)*2*1.05 = 0.0691, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.77/30.38 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0169*4*1.05 = 0.071(ROE 6% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.82/19.14 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0146*4*1.05 = 0.0613, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.8/16.95 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0162*4*1.05 = 0.068(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.16 (DPS 0.037)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*2 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/11.5 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0193*4 = 0.0772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.83/15.73 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0659*1.1 = 0.0725, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/15.64 (DPS 0.036)

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