Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Improved sales registered by all business segments of the Group, particularly the Equipment segment, resulted in the revenue growth
- Higher revenue coupled with favourable foreign exchange rates mainly contributed to the higher pbt
- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicle sales of 73466 units represented 46.4% of the total industry volume of 158433 units
- Higher pbt than fourth quarter of 2010 because the fourth quarter results had reflected impairment losses provided on some of our assets and investments
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate PE on current price 7.2 = 12.01(DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)
UMW latest news (English)
UMW latest news (Chinese)
| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 8,411,716,310 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.50 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (7.2-0.3)/0.5746 = 12.01 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 8.04+0.3 = 8.34 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5746, DPS 0.3) |
| Decision | BUY |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 6.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.2%, eps increased 706.2% and also higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 11.4%, total cash generated is enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, oil & gas division recovering |
| First Support Price | 7.0 |
| Second Support Price | 6.9 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| BIMB Target Price | 8.11 (2011-01-13) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 8.9 (2011-02-25) |
| Maybank Target Price | 7.2 (2011-03-18) |
| TA Target Price | 6.72 (2011-03-18) |
| Kenanga Target Price | 8.16 (2011-04-12) |
| CIMB Target Price | 8 (2011-04-18) |
| RHB Target Price | 7.5 (2011-04-25) |
| AMMB Target Price | 8.16 (2011-05-26) |
| ECM Target Price | 8.16 (2011-05-26) |
| MIDF Target Price | 7 (2011-05-26) |
| OSK Target Price | 6.41 (2011-05-26) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 9.86% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.17% |
| Profit Margin | 10.54% |
| Tax Rate | 23.47% |
| Asset Turnover | 1.2985 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 3.64 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 3.42 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 2.09 |
| Cash Per Share | 2.0 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 2.0035 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.4149 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.9616 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 1.0495 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.4428 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 18.6% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 43 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 30 |
| Days to pay the payables | 50 |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Improved sales registered by all business segments of the Group, particularly the Equipment segment, resulted in the revenue growth
- Higher revenue coupled with favourable foreign exchange rates mainly contributed to the higher pbt
- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicle sales of 73466 units represented 46.4% of the total industry volume of 158433 units
- Higher pbt than fourth quarter of 2010 because the fourth quarter results had reflected impairment losses provided on some of our assets and investments
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate PE on current price 7.2 = 12.01(DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)
UMW latest news (English)
UMW latest news (Chinese)
No comments:
Post a Comment