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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - AIRASIA / 5099 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)9,355,303,934 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.37-0.03)/0.3189 = 10.47 (Moderate)
Target Price4.46+0.03 = 4.49 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.3189, DPS 0.03)
DecisionWatching, buy when sell volume lower
Revenue decreased 11.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.4%, eps decreased 45.9% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 32.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses but still increased borrowing, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting ratio also improved, oil price decreasing
First Support Price2.95
Second Support Price2.5

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price2 (2011-05-05)
RHB Target Price2.66 (2011-05-16)
AMMB Target Price3.6 (2011-05-24)
ECM Target Price3.56 (2011-05-25)
HLG Target Price3.4 (2011-05-25)
OSK Target Price3.89 (2011-05-25)
Golman Sachs Target Price3.2 (2011-06-02)
CIMB Target Price4.2 (2011-06-24)
Credit Suisse Target Price4.8 (2011-06-27)
MIDF Target Price3.43 (2011-06-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity29.76%
Dividend Yield0.89%
Profit Margin19.36%
Tax Rate15.25%
Asset Turnover0.3148
Net Asset Value Per Share1.37
Net Tangible Asset per share1.37
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.23
Cash Per Share0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio1.653
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6422
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2027
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.4645
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7114
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale26.6%
Days to sell the inventory3
Days to collect the receivables65
Days to pay the payables169

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The revenue growth was supported by 17% growth in passenger volume offset by an average fare that was 5% lower at RM164 as compared to RM173 achieved in 1Q10. Ancillary income per passenger year-on-year rose by 31% to RM50 from RM38. Seat load factor was 6 percentage points higher at 80% compared to 74% in the same period last year

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0618*1.2)+(0.0618*1.2*1.1*3) = 0.3189, estimate PE on current price 3.37 = 10.47(DPS 0.03)

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