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Thursday, June 2, 2011

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)38,107,214,310 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.99-0.2)/0.6395 = 10.62 (Moderate)
Target Price7.67+0.2 = 7.87 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.6395, DPS 0.2)
Revenue decreased 2.9% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.5%, eps decreased 13.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.4%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover financing activities but still generated cash from financing activities to cover investing activities, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, all accounting periods are good, high coal price, income from foreign exchange still not stable
First Support Price6.4
Second Support Price6.4

Research House
RHB Target Price7.5 (2011-01-18)
AMMB Target Price6.6 (2011-05-31)
Citi Target Price7.9 (2011-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price8.8 (2011-05-31)
Kenanga Target Price8.06 (2011-05-31)
MIDF Target Price7.98 (2011-05-31)
OSK Target Price8.66 (2011-05-31)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.78%
Dividend Yield3.51%
Profit Margin9.63%
Tax Rate12.57%
Asset Turnover0.4131
Net Asset Value Per Share6.65
Net Tangible Asset per share6.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.91
Cash Per Share1.93
Liquidity Current Ratio1.543
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2974
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8612
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.5196
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6028
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.6%
Days to sell the inventory32
Days to collect the receivables51
Days to pay the payables77

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to an increase in sales of electricity in the Peninsula and SESB

- Operating expenses increased at a faster rate mainly due to higher generation costs from utilization of coal where the average contracted coal price consumed was USD103.8 per metric tonne as compared to USD80.7 per metric tonne in the corresponding period last financial year

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate PE on current price 6.99 = 10.6(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)

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