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Thursday, June 16, 2011

KLCI Stock - PELIKAN / 5231 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)517,924,021 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.01-0.02)/0.06 = 16.50 (High)
Target Price0.54+0.02 = 0.56 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.06, DPS 0.02)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue decreased 5.6% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 68.9%, eps increased 202.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 94.4%, no cash generated from operating and cash from borrowing also not enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price1.0
Second Support Price0.92
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price1.2 (2011-02-10)
ECM Target Price1 (2011-05-31)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity4.58%
Dividend Yield1.98%
Profit Margin1.48%
Tax Rate60.60%
Asset Turnover0.9963
Net Asset Value Per Share1.71
Net Tangible Asset per share1.49
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.68
Cash Per Share0.23
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3971
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7622
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1679
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2542
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5476
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale13.7%
Days to sell the inventory80
Days to collect the receivables74
Days to pay the payables73

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia (“RM”) against the Group’s major trade currencies such as Euro and United States Dollar (“USD”) has resulted in lower translation of revenues into the reporting currency

- The profit last year included the negative goodwill and provision for related expenses recognised in connection to the acquisition of Herlitz AG and related assets

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.075*0.8 = 0.06, estimate PE on current price 1.01 = 16.5(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.09*0.9 = 0.081, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/12.1 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.09, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.56/12.67 (DPS 0.02)

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