KLCI Stock - TONGHER / 5010 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	318,575,000 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.5-0.08)/0.3172 = 7.63 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.85+0.08 = 2.93 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.3172, DPS 0.08)
Decision	Not interested unless profit increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 14.1% and is seventh consecutive quarter increasing(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 143.4%), eps increased 88.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 248.8%, no cash generate from operating activities but cash from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, liquidity ratio decreasing at moderate level now, gearing ratio increasing at below moderate now, high inventory but is acceptable due to high revenue, raw material increased
First Support Price	2.4
Second Support Price	2.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.61%
Dividend Yield	3.20%
Profit Margin	11.09%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.8445
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.38
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.38
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.03
Cash Per Share	0.7
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5304
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2323
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6557
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4705
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2727
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	47.2%
Days to sell the inventory	168
Days to collect the receivables	61
Days to pay the payables	8

My notes based on 2011 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in revenue and pbt is due to increasing demand and consolidation of the newly acquired subsidiaries, Tong Heer Aluminium Industries Sdn Bhd and its subsidiaries

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1043+0.0543)*2 = 0.3172, estimate PE on current price 2.5 = 7.63(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0375*4 = 0.15(0.0375 is average eps of recent 2 quarter exclude non-repeatable profit RM 5.1 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.93/12.33 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.154*1.1 = 0.1694(0.154 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.22/9.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0347(average of recent 3Q)*4 = 0.1388, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.54/11.53 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0469*4 = 0.1876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.39 (DPS 0.05)

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