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Friday, June 17, 2011

KLCI Stock - TONGHER / 5010 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)318,575,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.5-0.08)/0.3172 = 7.63 (Moderate)
Target Price2.85+0.08 = 2.93 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.3172, DPS 0.08)
DecisionNot interested unless profit increase more
Revenue increased 14.1% and is seventh consecutive quarter increasing(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 143.4%), eps increased 88.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 248.8%, no cash generate from operating activities but cash from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, liquidity ratio decreasing at moderate level now, gearing ratio increasing at below moderate now, high inventory but is acceptable due to high revenue, raw material increased
First Support Price2.4
Second Support Price2.2

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.61%
Dividend Yield3.20%
Profit Margin11.09%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.8445
Net Asset Value Per Share2.38
Net Tangible Asset per share2.38
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.03
Cash Per Share0.7
Liquidity Current Ratio2.5304
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2323
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6557
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4705
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2727
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale47.2%
Days to sell the inventory168
Days to collect the receivables61
Days to pay the payables8

My notes based on 2011 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in revenue and pbt is due to increasing demand and consolidation of the newly acquired subsidiaries, Tong Heer Aluminium Industries Sdn Bhd and its subsidiaries

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1043+0.0543)*2 = 0.3172, estimate PE on current price 2.5 = 7.63(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0375*4 = 0.15(0.0375 is average eps of recent 2 quarter exclude non-repeatable profit RM 5.1 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.93/12.33 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.154*1.1 = 0.1694(0.154 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.22/9.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0347(average of recent 3Q)*4 = 0.1388, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.54/11.53 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0469*4 = 0.1876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.39 (DPS 0.05)

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