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Saturday, June 11, 2011

KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,763,447,655 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.75-0.37)/0.2538 = 13.32 (High)
Target Price3.30+0.37 = 3.67 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.2538, DPS 0.37)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue decreased 7.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.7%, eps increased 51.1% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 23%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting periods are good, port operations slow down, haulage/logistics division loss again
First Support Price3.6
Second Support Price3.1

Research House
MIDF Target Price3.75 (2011-02-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.76%
Dividend Yield4.53%
Profit Margin14.74%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4132
Net Asset Value Per Share4.09
Net Tangible Asset per share3.99
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.95
Cash Per Share1.91
Liquidity Current Ratio5.7277
Liquidity Quick Ratio5.6861
Liquidity Cash Ratio4.585
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1209
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1077
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale103.6%
Days to sell the inventory4
Days to collect the receivables82
Days to pay the payables94

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in revenue for the current quarter was mainly due to increase in revenue earned by the logistics subsidiary

- Northport achieved a throughput during the current quarter of 761,641 TEUs reflecting a decrease of 2.3% as compared to the corresponding period last year of 779,867 TEUs. As for the logistics subsidiary there was an increase in the revenue mainly generated by the warehousing and forwarding activities

- For the first quarter under review, the decrease in the volume handled was recorded in import and export categories while transshipment recorded an increase

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate PE on current price 3.75 = 13.32(DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2922*0.95 = 0.2776(due to unknown reason profit dropped), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.46/9 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3408*0.95 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.33/10.01 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1623*2*1.05 = 0.3408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.04/9.65 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3383(add adjustment of 0.0183), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.4/8.34 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.84/9.19 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)

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