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Friday, June 10, 2011

KLCI Stock - BPURI / 5932 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)128,520,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.19-0.04)/0.095 = 12.11 (High)
Target Price0.95+0.04 = 0.99 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.095, DPS 0.04)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue decreased 22.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.1%, eps decreased 30.4% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover liabilities expenses hence still increased borrowings, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, receivables ratio still high but payables got improved, slightly lower of current contract work in progress value
First Support Price1.18
Second Support Price1.1

Research House
Kenanga Target Price1.6 (2011-03-01)
Wilson & York Target Price1.6 (2011-05-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.71%
Dividend Yield3.36%
Profit Margin1.02%
Tax Rate14.12%
Asset Turnover1.7192
Net Asset Value Per Share1.03
Net Tangible Asset per share1.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.18
Cash Per Share0.57
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0377
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0221
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1062
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio5.2933
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8261
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale1.8%
Days to sell the inventory3
Days to collect the receivables158
Days to pay the payables99

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The performance of the polyol division was affected by lack of export market, higher cost of raw materials and intense competition in the local market

- The decrease in revenue was mainly due to near completion of the construction of the 2,000 units of affordable houses in Brunei

- The current value of contract work in progress is approximately RM2.45 billion

- Launching development projects in Klang Valley, Johor Bahru and Kota Kinabalu with an estimated projected gross development value of more than RM800 million

- The Group has also ventured into power supply to PT. PLN (PERSERO) in Indonesia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.028+0.0195)*2 = 0.095, estimate PE on current price 1.19 = 12.11(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.028*4*1.05 = 0.1176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.14/9.69 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.1/11.9 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0463*2 = 0.0926, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.15/11.23 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0828(10% grow from 0.0753, added adjustment from last quarter estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.12/11.59 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0781(10% grow from 0.071), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.26/9.8 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.078, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.9/8.91 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.17/11.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.39/15.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.78/14.19 (DPS 0.04)

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