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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

KLCI Stock - ANNJOO / 6556 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,437,447,489 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.75-0.1234)/0.2004 = 13.11 (High)
Target Price2.40+0.1234 = 2.53 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.2004, DPS 0.1234)
DecisionNot interested unless coming quarter also record strong result
Revenue increased 30% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 66.8%, eps largely increased and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.9%, cash generated from operating is just enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, inventory ratio still very high
First Support Price2.65
Second Support Price2.45

Research House
Maybank Target Price3.3 (2011-02-09)
RHB Target Price3.02 (2011-02-22)
OSK Target Price2.89 (2011-02-25)
CIMB Target Price3.74 (2011-05-27)
HLG Target Price3.11 (2011-05-27)
MIDF Target Price2.8 (2011-05-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.94%
Dividend Yield4.49%
Profit Margin10.28%
Tax Rate19.15%
Asset Turnover0.7129
Net Asset Value Per Share1.44
Net Tangible Asset per share1.43
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.03
Cash Per Share0.08
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0293
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.2012
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0423
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4371
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5889
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale2.3%
Days to sell the inventory257
Days to collect the receivables45
Days to pay the payables32

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly attributable to higher steel prices and sales tonnage of various steel products which were boosted by upturns domestic demand and export market

- Higher profitability was mainly due to steel price recovery and improved demands coupled with effective execution in strategic procurement and inventory management during the quarter under review

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate PE on current price 2.75 = 13.11(DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)

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