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Thursday, June 2, 2011

KLCI Stock - MITRA / 9571 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)328,355,613 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.43-0.12)/0.3538 = 6.53 (Moderate)
Target Price2.48+0.12 = 2.60 (PE 7.0, EPS 0.3538, DPS 0.12)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 9.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 23.5%, eps decreased 2% and is third consecutive quarter decreasing but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.9%, no cash generated from operating and over spent and cash generated from conversion of warrants to share also finish used, better liquidity ratio at moderate level now, improving gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting turnover periods still long time but offset by working capital increasing, manufacturing & trading division getting weaker result, property development and construction division recorded lower margin, first quarter construction usually record lower revenue, receivables increase rate higher than payables which will turn not enough cash
First Support Price2.25
Second Support Price1.9
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.47%
Dividend Yield4.94%
Profit Margin17.59%
Tax Rate27.19%
Asset Turnover0.6666
Net Asset Value Per Share2.56
Net Tangible Asset per share2.54
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.94
Cash Per Share0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio2.4697
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9935
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0457
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5715
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3474
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale57.5%
Days to sell the inventory269
Days to collect the receivables131
Days to pay the payables106

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0796+0.0812)*2*1.1 = 0.3538, estimate PE on current price 2.43 = 6.53(DPS 0.12), after split & bonus & free warrants then eps = 0.1049, price = 0.81, PE = 7.34(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.36(due to receivables increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.69/4.94 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.43/3.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2*0.7*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.25/3 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.12(average of 0.03 per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.5/7.5 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.08(average of 0.02 per quarter if no new big project secure for construction division), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.13/7.63 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.88/6.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.38

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