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Saturday, June 11, 2011

KLCI Stock - TSH / 9059 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,282,517,672 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.09-0.05)/0.2099 = 14.48 (High)
Target Price2.52+0.05 = 2.57 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.2099, DPS 0.05)
DecisionNot interested unless CPO price increase
Revenue increased 2.1% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5%, eps decreased 45.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 112.8%, cash generated from operating and financing not enough to cover all expenses , lower liquidity ratio at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting periods are good, CPO price decreased but haven't break end of April support price, wood products division remain loss and affect by strong Ringgit against Euro and US, cocoa may lower result in coming quarter
First Support Price2.7
Second Support Price2.3

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price3.4 (2011-01-13)
AMMB Target Price3.27 (2011-02-16)
MIDF Target Price4 (2011-02-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.55%
Dividend Yield1.94%
Profit Margin13.32%
Tax Rate21.17%
Asset Turnover0.4964
Net Asset Value Per Share1.9
Net Tangible Asset per share1.78
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.58
Cash Per Share0.13
Liquidity Current Ratio0.5897
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.3019
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0761
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2558
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5282
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-30.4%
Days to sell the inventory86
Days to collect the receivables50
Days to pay the payables53

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The performance for the Palm and Bio-integration segment for the quarter is adversely affected by La Nina weather effect resulted in poor crop formation and lower FFB production yield. Cocoa Manufacturing segment also recorded lower revenue due to lower butter ratio and selling price for cocoa butter. The Wood Products segment has improved against last quarter which was affected by lower business activities during the traditional year end holiday break in Europe

- Wood Products segment is currently operating in a difficult environment with subdued consumer sentiments and spending trends over in Europe where the bulk of its products are exported to

- For the Cocoa Manufacturing segment, performance in the coming months continues to be challenged by the volatile demand and supply of its finished products in the global market

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0583*4*0.9 = 0.2099, estimate PE on current price 3.09 = 14.48(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.2 = 0.2482, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/10.44 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0444*4*1.1 = 0.1954, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.84/11.41 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.033*4 = 0.132, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.21/13.94 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1938*0.95 = 0.1841, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.59/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1802*1.1 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.78 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0568*4*0.95 = 0.2158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/7.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.055*4*0.8 = 0.176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.97/8.35 (DPS 0.05)

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