KLCI Stock - OSK / 5053 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,541,420,196 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.6-0.075)/0.198 = 7.70 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.57+0.075 = 2.65 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.198, DPS 0.075)
Decision	Watching, buy when sell volume low
Comment	Revenue increased 0.7% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 23.9% and in addition is highest since FY08Q3, eps increased 14.6% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 26.9%, cash generated from operating just right enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio
First Support Price	1.55
Second Support Price	1.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	7.80%
Dividend Yield	4.69%
Profit Margin	24.08%
Tax Rate	27.22%
Asset Turnover	0.0911
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.6
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.36
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.23
Cash Per Share	2.01
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.2012
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.7365
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2058
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	6.655
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.8513
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	172.9%
Days to sell the inventory	2324
Days to collect the receivables	1615
Days to pay the payables	4982

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0495*4 = 0.198, estimate PE on current price 1.6 = 7.7(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0993*1.1 = 0.1092(exclude RM20 million from property investment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.35/13.87 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0479*2*1.05 = 0.1006, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/16.15 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0479*2 = 0.0958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.43/12.08 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.56/7.4 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0449*4 = 0.1796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/6.38 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0525*4 = 0.21, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.38/6.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0570*4 = 0.228, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.83 (DPS 0.05)
- After 2009 Q1 loss result announced, no estimate
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0240*4 = 0.096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/7.86 (DPS 0.075)

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