KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	782,000,000 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.7-0.12)/0.1912 = 8.26 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.72+0.12 = 1.84 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.1912, DPS 0.12)
Decision	Not interested unless USD dollor strengthen
Comment	Revenue increased 1.6% and is second consecutive quarter increasing but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.1%, eps decreased 9.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.8%, cash generated from investing enough to cover operating activities and no financing expense, weaker liquidity ratio but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio increasing still at low level now, all accounting periods are good, continuous affecting by weakeaning USD dollor against Ringgit
First Support Price	1.7
Second Support Price	1.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	2.5 (2011-02-09)
ZJ Target Price	2.18 (2011-04-22)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	24.19%
Dividend Yield	7.06%
Profit Margin	31.87%
Tax Rate	20.01%
Asset Turnover	0.7594
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.78
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.78
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.28
Cash Per Share	0.29
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.9177
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.2252
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.1564
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1811
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1534
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	55.9%
Days to sell the inventory	62
Days to collect the receivables	73
Days to pay the payables	84

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to the increase in market demands for both local and overseas markets, offset by the increase in foreign currency loss

- Lower profit mainly due to the drop in gross profit margin as a result of strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against USD

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0478*4 = 0.1912, estimate PE on current price 1.7 = 8.26(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0959*2*1.05 = 0.2014, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.44/7.6 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0431*4*1.1 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/8.33 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/7.23 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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