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Sunday, June 12, 2011

KLCI Stock - KURASIA / 5097 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)585,000,000 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.39/0.0212 = 18.40 (High)
Target Price0.0212*9.0 = 0.19 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.0212)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 4.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.6%, eps increased 270.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.4%, no cash generate from all activities, weaker liquidity ratio but still at high level now
First Support Price0.375
Second Support Price0.34
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
JF APEX Target Price0.342 (2011-03-01)
OSK Target Price0.42 (2011-05-24)
TA Target Price0.457 (2011-05-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity1.49%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin7.42%
Tax Rate32.08%
Asset Turnover0.4465
Net Asset Value Per Share0.23
Net Tangible Asset per share0.23
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.72
Cash Per Share0.06
Liquidity Current Ratio3.303
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1933
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1404
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio6.5415
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8674
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale117.5%
Days to sell the inventory739
Days to collect the receivables186
Days to pay the payables102

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a 6.1% or RM15.499 million improvement in the gross written premium income, driven by a commendable growth in the non-motor segment

- The Group recorded a pre-tax profit of RM21.277 million during the quarter, compared to RM9.001 million pre-tax loss in the preceding quarter, mainly due to better underwriting results

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.021*1.01 = 0.0212, estimate PE on current price 0.39 = 18.57
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0055*4 = 0.021(profit margin 3% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.1/15.48
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324(profit margin 4% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.96/10.49
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0182*2 = 0.0364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.23/10.16
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0233*2 = 0.0466, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.23/9.33
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q6 result announced = 0.0753, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.9/6.71
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q5 result announced = 0.0216*4 = 0.0864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.32/7.29
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0287*4 = 0.1148, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.88/4.53
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0177*4 = 0.0708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/4.87

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