KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	281,150,625 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.0-0.13)/0.38 = 7.55 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.23+0.13 = 3.36 (PE 8.5, EPS 0.38, DPS 0.13)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue increased 19.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.7%, eps decreased 32.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.3%, cash generated from operating still got extra after deduct all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting periods are good
First Support Price	2.9
Second Support Price	2.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	18.30%
Dividend Yield	4.33%
Profit Margin	12.53%
Tax Rate	21.38%
Asset Turnover	1.1497
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.03
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.02
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.49
Cash Per Share	0.27
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.2522
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.6386
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3641
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4309
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.287
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	26.5%
Days to sell the inventory	61
Days to collect the receivables	98
Days to pay the payables	93

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Revenue at Xepa-Soul Pattinson (M) Sdn Bhd‟s („Xepa‟) exceeded budget and grew 18% quarter on quarter, driven by continued robust sales to private sector clinics, pharmacies and hospitals in the domestic sector. In anticipation of growing demand, Xepa has embarked on a fresh RM4 million capital expenditure program to increase capacity, automation and improve manufacturing efficiency

- Apex Pharmacy Marketing Sdn Bhd‟s revenue for the current quarter grew 22% compared to the same period last year due to good contributions from all four divisions; logistics, consumer, pharma & diagnostics and wholesale. Newly launched Avegesic 15mg under the Group‟s AVEX brand has been well received by the market. In Singapore, revenue grew by 23% year on year to RM17.3 million for the quarter, driven by newly acquired distribution agencies and wholesale

- Lower pbt than preceding quarter mainly because the Group recognized a deemed disposal gain of RM10.1 million in the last quarter of 2010 as a result of the issuance of shares at a premium to new investors by Xiamen Maidiken Science and Technology Co Ltd‟s intermediate holding company for its retail and distribution operations, Luyan (Fujian) Pharma Co., Ltd

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.095*4 = 0.38, estimate PE on current price 3 = 7.55(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(exclude non-recurring income RM10.1 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/7.44 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0771*4*1.05 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7.38 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.7/7.85 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

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