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Thursday, June 9, 2011

KLCI Stock - TGOFFS / 7228 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)306,537,462 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now1.05/0.0158 = 66.46 (High)
Target Price0.0158*8.0 = 0.13 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.0158)
DecisionNot interested unless profit increase more
Revenue decreased 28.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.2%, eps very largely increased the loss(due to disposal loss, if not will be increase profit) and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 191.6%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing activities, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, receivables and payables periods still very long time
First Support Price1.0
Second Support Price0.9
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
Maybank Target Price1.07 (2011-04-28)
OSK Target Price1.29 (2011-05-19)
AMMB Target Price1 (2011-05-20)
TA Target Price0.72 (2011-05-20)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity0.28%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin-2.57%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4842
Net Asset Value Per Share1.21
Net Tangible Asset per share1.18
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.94
Cash Per Share0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2608
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1571
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0729
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.9036
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6518
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale11.4%
Days to sell the inventory17
Days to collect the receivables172
Days to pay the payables124

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The reduction in revenue and net loss is mainly due to a weaker demand within the industry especially in the engineering equipment division. The losses in the current quarter were also partly due to a net loss of RM4.70 million incurred from the disposal of Tanjung Offshore Berhad’s (Tanjung) entire equity stake in Hercules Tanjung Asia Sdn Bhd

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.004*0.9*4*1.1 = 0.0158, estimate PE on current price 1.05 = 66.46
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.035*1.1*2 = 0.077(use 100% improvement forecast), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.3/14.03
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0124*4*1.1*2 = 0.1091, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.78/13.84 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0119*4*1.1*2 = 0.1048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.18/10.11 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0096*4*2 = 0.0768, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.01/9.4 (DPS 0.01)

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