KLCI Stock - BJTOTO / 1562 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	6,106,655,925 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.52-0.18)/0.3116 = 13.93 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.99+0.18 = 5.17 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.3116, DPS 0.18)
Decision	Watching, buy when sell volume is low
Comment	Revenue increased 5.9% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5%, eps decreased 9.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 27.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing activities hence generated more cash from medium term notes, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, new 4D Jackpot game
First Support Price	4.13
Second Support Price	4.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	4.6 (2011-03-16)
ECM Target Price	4.56 (2011-03-16)
TA Target Price	4.25 (2011-03-16)
OSK Target Price	4.65 (2011-04-13)
RHB Target Price	5.1 (2011-06-13)
CIMB Target Price	4.75 (2011-06-14)
Maybank Target Price	4.95 (2011-06-15)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	73.39%
Dividend Yield	4.65%
Profit Margin	16.43%
Tax Rate	28.72%
Asset Turnover	2.3818
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.34
Net Tangible Asset per share	-0.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	-32.29
Cash Per Share	0.34
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.3157
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3013
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.0938
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.1478
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.671
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	3.8%
Days to sell the inventory	1
Days to collect the receivables	9
Days to pay the payables	49

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in revenue was mainly attributed to strong sales from a record Jackpot of the Supreme Toto 6/58 lotto game coupled with the traditionally high sales during the Chinese Lunar New Year festival in the month of February 2011 as well as the current quarter having higher number of draws

- The higher increase in pre-tax profit as compared to the increase in revenue was mainly attributed to the lower prize payout

- Drop in pre-tax profit was mainly due to Berjaya Philippines Inc. group registering lower revenue and pre-tax profit in the current quarter whereas the preceding quarter recorded higher revenue arising from a record Jackpot in November 2010

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0779*4 = 0.3116, estimate PE on current price 4.52 = 13.93(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0859+0.0487)*2*1.05 = 0.2827, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.53/13.76 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.27/18.97 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)

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