KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2011 Quarter 1

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M) BERHAD

Company Description

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M) BERHAD provides day-to-day management and administrative services to its subsidiaries, which are principally engaged in the manufacture, importation and sale of cigarettes, pipe tobaccos and cigars. The Company's portfolio includes brands, such as Dunhill, Kent, Pall Mall, Benson & Hedges and Perilly’s. Its subsidiaries include Commercial Importers and Distributors Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in investment holding; Commercial Marketers and Distributors Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in the marketing and importation of cigarettes, pipe tobaccos and cigars; Rothmans Brands Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged holding trademarks; The Leaf Tobacco Development Corporation of Malaya Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in the development and purchase of tobacco leaf; Tobacco Blenders and Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd., which provides warehousing space, and Tobacco Importers and Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd., which manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco related products.

Company Info

Listing Date	1961-10-27
Market Capital (Capital Size)	13,202,907,200 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50
Board	Main
Sector	Consumer Products
Major Industry	Tobacco
Sub Industry	TOBACCO COMPANIES
Website	http://www.batmalaysia.com

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(46.24-2.4)/2.5016 = 17.52 (High)
Target Price	42.53+2.4 = 44.93 (PE 17.0, EPS 2.5016, DPS 2.4)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 3.4% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.6% , eps decreased 2.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover all financing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, all accounting periods are good
First Support Price	44.0
Second Support Price	43.8
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	45.9 (2011-02-23)
ECM Target Price	43.8 (2011-02-23)
Maybank Target Price	42.5 (2011-02-23)
OSK Target Price	41 (2011-02-23)
Kenanga Target Price	42.2 (2011-04-22)
MIDF Target Price	44.84 (2011-04-22)
RHB Target Price	43.15 (2011-04-22)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	137.80%
Dividend Yield	6.49%
Profit Margin	24.22%
Tax Rate	25.70%
Asset Turnover	2.5072
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.72
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.28
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	169.57
Cash Per Share	1.17
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.9294
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3528
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8701
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.1977
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6873
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	9.1%
Days to sell the inventory	27
Days to collect the receivables	17
Days to pay the payables	37

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to lower volumes and unfavourable pack size mix with the ban on packs less than 20 sticks, which was partially offset by higher excise and pricing

- The Group’s profit from operations only declined by 6.7% as the lower net turnover and higher packing costs for the Dunhill Reloc pack was partially offset by lower marketing expenditure due to absence of Dunhill Reloc launch activities and lower IT expenses

- Profit before tax grew more than gross profit increasing by 5.2% from lower operating expenses due to absence of one off market returns and sale of assets in the pervious quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate PE on current price 46.24 = 17.52(DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2011-04-21	2011	1	N/A	N/A	0.6	36.34%	36.34%	992149	992149	240327	240327	178557	178557	0.6254	0.6254	1571014	1079721	-	491293	168716	1061	191669	356623	169777	21892	334731	285530	285530	13556964	2011-03-31	24.22%	25.70%	2.5072	-	1.72	0.28	169.57	1.17	1.9294	1.3528	0.8701	2.1977	0.6873	9.1%	27	17	37
2011-02-22	2010	4	49.44	44.82	0.63	37.26%	149.08%	959163	3965448	228426	959181	182721	731111	0.6399	2.5605	1569146	1078720	-	490426	875924	21741	709728	168686	897665	187937	356623	285530	285530	13225749	2010-12-31	23.82%	20.01%	2.5271	18.0899	1.72	0.28	165.43	1.25	1.9085	1.4028	0.9316	2.1996	0.6875	8.8%	23	17	38
2010-10-20	2010	3	48.66	44.0	0.64	35.05%	112.64%	993591	3006285	222578	730754	170654	548389	0.5977	1.9206	1558973	1072103	-	486870	694335	764	525096	168686	693571	168475	337161	285530	285530	13705440	2010-09-30	22.40%	23.33%	2.5833	-	1.71	0.26	184.62	1.18	2.0078	1.4599	0.9227	2.202	0.6877	9.1%	24	16	35
2010-07-22	2010	2	49.94	43.22	1.13	29.15%	59.25%	993874	2012694	250048	508176	185840	377735	0.6509	1.3229	1756556	1119036	-	637520	513498	8368	188772	168686	521866	333094	501780	285530	285530	12557609	2010-06-30	25.16%	25.68%	2.2503	-	2.23	0.79	55.67	1.76	2.1545	1.6301	1.2086	1.7553	0.6371	12.1%	27	16	36
2010-04-22	2010	1	45.0	42.02	-	30.56%	30.56%	1018820	1018820	258127	258127	191894	191894	0.6721	0.6721	1698880	1070873	-	628007	272829	3635	11743	168686	276464	264721	433407	285530	285530	12214973	2010-03-31	25.34%	25.66%	2.3172	-	2.2	0.76	56.29	1.52	2.2276	1.6547	1.1792	1.7052	0.6303	11.5%	26	16	35
2010-02-11	2009	4	45.7	41.42	0.62	39.35%	170.00%	1020950	3923421	227896	1005312	172865	746784	0.6054	2.6154	1442130	1002845	-	439285	924240	73635	741306	59387	850605	109299	168686	285530	285530	12020813	2009-12-31	22.32%	24.15%	2.7206	16.0968	1.54	0.1	421.0	0.59	1.8395	1.1254	0.5622	2.2829	0.6954	6.4%	27	15	28
2009-11-19	2009	3	46.1	41.5	0.61	37.80%	130.11%	919197	2902471	234502	777416	166734	573919	0.5839	2.0100	1602736	1161635	-	441101	689207	18384	413049	59387	670823	257774	317161	285530	285530	12871692	2009-09-30	25.51%	28.90%	2.4364	-	1.54	0.1	450.8	1.11	1.5564	1.0529	0.6845	2.6335	0.7248	6.6%	29	16	31
2009-07-23	2009	2	49.12	44.0	1.13	33.71%	68.20%	977648	1983274	270131	542914	201244	407185	0.7048	1.4261	1545738	948722	-	597016	520139	16604	330990	59387	536743	205753	265140	285530	285530	12777467	2009-06-30	27.63%	25.50%	2.6417	-	2.09	0.65	68.85	0.93	1.3741	0.9025	0.5311	1.5891	0.6138	4.6%	29	15	28
2009-04-23	2009	1	45.75	41.0	-	33.61%	33.61%	1005626	1005626	272783	272783	205941	205941	0.7213	0.7213	1706490	1093745	-	612745	233848	18554	8078	59387	252402	244324	303711	285530	285530	12848850	2009-03-31	27.13%	24.50%	2.414	-	2.15	0.7	64.29	1.06	1.2891	0.8418	0.4711	1.785	0.6409	4.5%	35	19	35
2009-02-19	2008	4	47.0	43.75	0.76	42.53%	199.69%	1002447	4135220	215796	1081166	172874	811683	0.6054	2.8427	1487312	1080833	-	406479	954750	86954	879075	70666	867796	11279	59387	285530	285530	12563320	2008-12-31	21.53%	19.89%	2.7803	15.4781	1.42	-0.02	-2200.0	0.21	0.9433	0.5875	0.0939	2.659	0.7267	-0.9%	27	23	34
2008-10-23	2008	3	46.0	40.5	0.76	51.50%	141.68%	1097716	3132773	315625	865370	232217	638809	0.8133	2.2373	1540030	1089160	-	450870	792725	49901	656139	70666	742824	86685	157351	285530	285530	11778112	2008-09-30	28.75%	26.43%	2.65	-	1.58	0.14	294.64	0.55	1.4079	0.8662	0.3317	2.4157	0.7072	4.7%	31	18	33
2008-07-17	2008	2	42.5	38.75	1.13	36.06%	75.12%	1013647	2035057	264603	549745	195188	406592	0.6836	1.4240	1667235	1125963	-	541272	532188	15091	325279	70666	517097	191818	262484	285530	285530	11778112	2008-06-30	26.10%	26.23%	2.3942	-	1.9	0.45	91.67	0.92	1.5432	1.0328	0.5135	2.0802	0.6753	7.0%	33	20	37
2008-04-22	2008	1	45.25	40.75	-	37.93%	37.93%	1021410	1021410	285142	285142	211404	211404	0.7404	0.7404	1613397	1056051	-	557346	288739	2465	108077	70666	286274	178197	248863	285530	285530	12420555	2008-03-31	27.92%	25.86%	2.4266	-	1.95	0.51	85.29	0.87	2.1383	1.45	0.7283	1.8948	0.6546	9.9%	30	19	31
2008-02-21	2007	4	44.0	41.0	0.74	43.87%	211.59%	948236	3830869	208127	1002901	151746	731931	0.5315	2.5634	1447008	1101096	-	345912	837331	17987	935967	187289	819344	116623	70666	285530	285530	12063642	2007-12-31	21.95%	27.09%	2.6474	16.4819	1.21	-0.23	-183.7	0.25	1.4155	0.7859	0.1824	3.1832	0.7609	4.2%	32	18	30
2007-10-24	2007	3	44.75	39.25	1.0	50.88%	144.12%	1008411	2882633	280607	794774	204843	580185	0.7174	2.0320	1864335	1461766	-	402569	640148	4842	353164	187289	644990	291826	479115	285530	285530	11349817	2007-09-30	27.83%	27.00%	1.9738	-	1.41	-0.03	-1325.0	1.68	1.2748	0.9365	0.6384	3.6311	0.7841	5.6%	35	17	27
2007-07-19	2007	2	N/A	N/A	1.5	34.97%	73.55%	937036	1874222	244487	514167	178476	375342	0.6251	1.3145	1614303	1103952	-	510351	422531	23789	440510	187289	446320	5810	193099	285530	285530	11563965	2007-06-30	26.09%	27.00%	1.6548	-	1.79	0.35	115.71	0.68	0.8681	0.5277	0.2443	2.1631	0.6839	-3.9%	50	27	42
2007-04-24	2007	1	N/A	N/A	-	26.29%	26.29%	937186	937186	269680	269680	196866	196866	0.6895	0.6895	1845296	1096576	-	748720	209605	9216	N/A	187289	218821	218821	406110	285530	285530	13134380	2007-03-31	28.78%	27.00%	0.9399	-	2.62	1.18	38.98	1.42	1.162	0.8214	0.5173	1.4646	0.5943	7.3%	77	39	67
2007-02-15	2006	4	N/A	N/A	1.7	22.22%	130.42%	797145	3612482	170403	1001947	122630	719678	0.4295	2.5205	1620211	1068387	-	551824	835886	49279	833376	234058	786607	46769	187289	285530	285530	12349172	2006-12-31	21.38%	28.04%	0.492	17.1593	1.93	0.49	88.27	0.66	0.8832	0.5341	0.2472	1.9361	0.6594	-11.1%	157	75	130

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Computer software (A-0)	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)	Investment properties (A-0)	Leasehold land use rights (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Current tax assets (A-1)	Derivative financial assets (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Other receivables (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Post-employment benefit obligations (L-0)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Other payables (L-1)
2011	1	3354	15158	411618	1631	-	397033	334731	888	-	1093	221816	183692	40876	650000	4161	83647	-	-	301037
2010	4	4336	15158	411618	1636	-	405826	356623	888	-	-	193572	179489	41805	650000	4117	66758	1832	-	314208
2010	3	3222	19701	411618	1654	-	389104	337161	21386	-	-	200228	174899	49729	650000	6971	75806	1622	-	287975
2010	2	3718	20139	411618	1654	-	424926	501779	887	-	-	217714	174121	47201	650000	6662	123212	3375	-	288586
2010	1	5501	20362	411618	1654	-	441001	433407	2837	-	-	210583	171917	46976	650000	6352	87677	4269	-	275599
2009	4	6550	19295	411618	1654	-	451069	168686	4288	-	-	214258	164712	46752	650000	6043	80962	-	-	219088
2009	3	8932	4978	411618	-	20118	435946	317161	1950	-	-	233279	168754	42630	650000	5664	66092	-	150000	247249
2009	2	11259	4978	411618	-	20219	411660	265140	1950	19982	-	235459	163473	44056	400000	5438	122722	-	150000	226506
2009	1	13203	4978	411618	-	19216	426461	303711	-	19982	-	288341	218980	44041	400000	5041	103453	-	250000	291210
2008	4	15232	4978	411618	-	20455	438624	59387	20638	33604	-	224958	257818	43287	400000	5297	96512	-	250000	285737
2008	3	16976	4978	411618	-	20523	418152	157351	21190	26754	-	256922	205566	59048	550000	5793	107253	-	100000	267066
2008	2	18505	4978	411618	-	20624	422656	262484	20638	26754	-	260915	218063	59274	550000	5523	116514	-	100000	294652
2008	1	20163	4978	411618	-	20725	425292	248863	20638	26754	-	235198	199168	59117	650000	5252	96624	-	-	245058
2007	4	21091	4978	411618	-	20826	439959	70666	20638	26754	-	243988	186490	58585	650000	4982	56493	-	100000	231036
2007	3	10873	2957	411618	-	20519	461708	479115	22055	27715	-	253874	173901	55960	650000	5364	101173	-	450000	199269
2007	2	14232	2957	411618	19851	20620	458847	193099	1962	27715	-	269038	194364	58382	250000	5093	116213	-	450000	224264
2007	1	14226	4020	411618	19957	20911	462265	406110	25479	27715	-	267392	185603	56647	250000	4823	101873	-	450000	233233
2006	4	14100	4020	411618	20010	22600	478688	187289	25579	27715	-	264507	164085	56138	250000	4552	88819	-	450000	218878

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Cost of sales	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses
2011	1	992149	61770	636037	6756	3115	112144
2010	4	959163	45705	609001	6906	20113	134943
2010	3	993591	51924	631013	6907	2822	135915
2010	2	993874	64208	612461	6831	3589	128123
2010	1	1018820	66233	624168	6756	1596	131365
2009	4	1020950	55031	630898	7479	1545	156222
2009	3	919197	67768	546471	7181	1764	132807
2009	2	977648	68887	600675	6524	1416	101734
2009	1	1005626	66842	600990	6639	1014	126228
2008	4	1002447	42922	605933	7432	3841	177127
2008	3	1097716	83408	642362	6728	3954	136955
2008	2	1013647	69415	606168	6994	1839	137721
2008	1	1021410	73738	611009	6977	3281	121563
2007	4	948236	56381	574748	10656	2886	157591
2007	3	1008411	75764	600761	12320	1391	116114
2007	2	937036	66011	542841	11818	3451	141341
2007	1	937186	72814	544431	11721	3038	114392
2006	4	797145	47773	469496	12013	1131	146364

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

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