KLCI Stock - TGUAN / 7034 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	135,713,805 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.29-0.05)/0.2235 = 5.55 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.56+0.05 = 1.61 (PE 7.0, EPS 0.2235, DPS 0.05)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue decreased 10.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.2%, eps decreased 11.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover liabilities expenses, investing and financing activities, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting periods are good
First Support Price	1.15
Second Support Price	1.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.75%
Dividend Yield	3.88%
Profit Margin	5.77%
Tax Rate	11.69%
Asset Turnover	1.6109
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.12
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.12
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.5
Cash Per Share	0.4
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.6391
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.6316
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5561
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3915
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2813
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	24.8%
Days to sell the inventory	58
Days to collect the receivables	57
Days to pay the payables	41

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The decrease in revenue and margin was mainly due to the fewer operating days and Chinese New Year holidays in the slower month of February for the current quarter compared to the more robust preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2129*1.05 = 0.2235, estimate PE on current price 1.29 = 5.55(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1935*1.1 = 0.2129, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.93/4.23 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.045*4 = 0.18(profit margin around 4%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.89 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.19(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1351*1.1 = 0.1486 (10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.81/4.98 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1351 (revenue growth but cost also increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.92/5.26 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/5.45 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1138, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.63 (DPS 0.02)

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