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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

KLCI Stock - MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,838,236,095 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.47-0.06)/0.4814 = 9.16 (Moderate)
Target Price5.78+0.06 = 5.84 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.4814, DPS 0.06)
Revenue decreased 3.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, eps decreased 27.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.1%, cash generated from operating and receivables just almost enough to cover payables, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, lower receivables and payables ratio but still high, all division business slow down
First Support Price4.2
Second Support Price3.75

Research House
HLG Target Price6.75 (2011-05-30)
OSK Target Price7.3 (2011-05-30)
CIMB Target Price7.94 (2011-06-06)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity26.63%
Dividend Yield1.68%
Profit Margin23.69%
Tax Rate10.85%
Asset Turnover0.8183
Net Asset Value Per Share1.86
Net Tangible Asset per share1.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.44
Cash Per Share0.61
Liquidity Current Ratio2.7004
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.3855
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.0457
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3135
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2287
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale47.5%
Days to sell the inventory46
Days to collect the receivables137
Days to pay the payables137

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The decline in revenue and profit before taxation of 6.8% and 31.7% respectively were mainly attributable to the decreased level of activities during the current quarter as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- The revenue for the quarter under review was affected by the interruptions in the construction progress of the Independent Power Producer (IPP) Project in the state of Chhattisgarh, India under the associated company, RKM Powergen Ptd Ltd (RKM). The project is currently in progress but is behind the targeted construction schedule by approximately 4 months. This interruption was due to a force majeure issue i.e. protests by villagers at various power plant sites in Chhattisgarh, India, including at our project site, seeking higher compensation for the sale of their lands (which RKM has originally acquired in 2008), arising from a government guideline issued in 2010. This issue has since been resolved without any material financial effect and construction work has resumed

- Nevertheless, the commercial operation dates for Phase I and Phase II of the IPP Project are expected to be within the revised schedule of May 2012 and July 2013 respectively under the terms of the Power Purchase Agreements for Phase 1 and Phase II

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2407*2 = 0.4814, estimate PE on current price 4.47 = 9.16(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5096*1.05 = 0.5351, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/62/8.16 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1137*0.9*4 = 0.4093, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/9.05 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1235*0.9*4 = 0.4446(based on preceding quarter eps to minus 10% adjustment due to revenue dropped 12%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.34/8.54 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1235*4 = 0.494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/7.51 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1102*4 = 0.4408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.51/10.81 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.76/10.68 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.25 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.6/9.08 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/9.58 (DPS 0.045)

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