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Monday, June 13, 2011

KLCI Stock - MUHIBAH / 5703 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)716,514,177 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.79-0.035)/0.1394 = 12.59 (High)
Target Price1.39+0.035 = 1.43 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1394, DPS 0.035)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue decreased 5.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 4%, eps increased 93.8% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 234.4%, no cash generate from operating after deduct liabilities expenses however cash generated from financing is more than enough to cover the rest of expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high ratio now, receivables and payables ratio still very higher, better profit margin
First Support Price1.65
Second Support Price1.45
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
CIMB Target Price2.53 (2011-01-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.03%
Dividend Yield1.96%
Profit Margin6.36%
Tax Rate22.41%
Asset Turnover0.6142
Net Asset Value Per Share1.14
Net Tangible Asset per share1.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.5
Cash Per Share0.58
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0634
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9576
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.146
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio4.1541
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7724
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale6.7%
Days to sell the inventory42
Days to collect the receivables301
Days to pay the payables290

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly due to better results from all divisions

- As at 19 May 2011, the total outstanding secured order book in hand of the Group is RM2.86 billion, comprises of RM2.0 billion from Infrastructure Construction Division, RM496 million from Cranes Division and RM358 million from Shipyard Division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = (0.0438+0.0226)*2*1.05 = 0.1394, estimate PE on current price 1.79 = 12.59 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0843*1.1 = 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.93/13.65 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0481*2 = 0.0962(although revenue decrease but offset by high tax rate), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.06/12.79
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0266*4 = 0.1064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/7.99
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0135*4 = 0.054, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/15.74
- No estimate for 2009 Q4 result
- No estimate for 2009 Q3 result
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0362*4 = 0.1448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.29/6.94 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.17/4.04 (DPS 0.025)

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